If you thought that having this year’s NBA playoffs in a “bubble” environment in Orlando, without any fans in the stands, would lead to a dropoff in drama and intrigue, it’s time to think again.
On Sunday, the Dallas Mavericks trailed the Los Angeles Clippers by 21 points in the second quarter, with big man Kristaps Porzingis on the shelf with knee soreness. Things looked grim, with Dallas looking like they would head to a 3-1 series deficit. What came next will be the stuff of Mavericks lore for years to come, as they mounted their largest playoff comeback in franchise history, actually leading by as many as 12 in the fourth quarter before the game went to overtime. Luka Doncic, all of 21 years old, punctuated a 43-17-13 triple-double with a step-back three at the buzzer to end the extra frame with a 135-133 Dallas win.
In Utah’s Game 4 matchup with Denver, Jamal Murray posted 50 points for the Nuggets, but Donovan Mitchell did him one better with 51 points — and the Jazz now have a 3-1 lead on the Nuggets.
How can you make money through NBA betting in these crazy games? Take a look at some of our NBA Betting tips.
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Keys to Profitable Betting in the NBA Playoffs
Take a look at NBA Player Prop Bets
Consider Luka’s play for a minute. In Game 1, he hung 42 on the Clippers — a league record for a player’s playoff debut. He had triple-doubles in Game 3 and Game 4. One of the league’s transcendent young talents is having his moment. Could he fall off the table and go 5 for 19 in Game 5? Sure. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Finding player props in terms of points (and whether he will have another triple-double) could bring you some money.
Lou Williams poured in a quiet 36 points for the Clippers in the Game 4 loss. All Lou does for the Clippers is come in off the bench and fill up the basket. If you want some more favorable odds (after all, lots of bettors will be looking at Luka to fill the stat sheet), look through box scores to find quiet scorers like Williams.
Pick Series Winners
I thought that Portland made an intriguing case for an 8-seed taking down a 1-seed, as the Lakers looked a little pedestrian in the NBA bubble games leading up to the playoffs. However, the Lakers have restored order after dropping the opener and now lead the series, 2-1. This isn’t the NHL, where top seeds go down all the time. In the NBA, a 1-seed is almost automatic, so don’t take the low value that goes with the favorite, or the risk of the underdog.
What about the 2-seed vs the 7-seed? The Clippers and the Mavericks are in a 2-2 dogfight. But in the East, Toronto just swept Brooklyn out of the playoffs, so you have to look at the individual series. Dallas has a terrific upside in terms of youth and offense, while Brooklyn did not have Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant, relying on Caris LeVert against a tough Raptors team. I took the risk with Dallas, understanding that I’ll likely have to make up for that elsewhere in order to turn a profit.
In the 3-seed vs 6-seed and 4-seed vs 5-seed matchups, you can make some value on the underdog side, because the teams are so close — and bettors are so used to thinking with their “home court” mindset. There really is no advantage for any of these four teams, because all the games are played in an empty arena in Orlando. Would Utah be leading Denver 3-1 if they had had to play the first two games in front of Nuggets fans? It’s hard to say. Would the teams be scoring as much if the whole series were being played at altitude (both Denver and Salt Lake City are in the mountains)? Again, this is a different year. Finding the best ways to maximize your betting dollar can be a challenge — but can make the NBA playoffs even more exciting.
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