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If the NBA regular season ended today, the Dallas Mavericks would enter the play-in tournament for the NBA Championship bracket as the tenth-place team in the Western Conference.
To qualify for the playoffs, they would need to beat ninth-ranked Sacramento and then beat the loser between Minnesota and the Clippers to clinch the eighth seed. That would give them a first-round matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, whom they have beaten three of four times this season before the controversial Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers for Anthony Davis.
Quentin Grimes was sent to Philadelphia and has emerged as a young star in the league. Before the Doncic trade, the Mavericks were inconsistent but held the sixth spot in the West, securing a playoff position without the play-in. The long-term potential of Doncic remains uncertain due to his conditioning and defensive reluctance, but he led Dallas to a West Finals and an NBA Finals. Consequently, the Mavericks’ title chances this year and in the future have significantly diminished.
Let’s look at the teams that we can expect to see contending for the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of the NBA Finals and how you can incorporate the NBA playoffs into your sports betting.
Updated Odds to Win the NBA Championship: What are the current NBA championship odds?
- Oklahoma City Thunder +180
- Boston Celtics +200
- Cleveland Cavaliers +550
- L.A. Lakers +1000
- Denver Nuggets +1400
- Golden State Warriors +1600
- N.Y. Knicks +2000
- Milwaukee Bucks +5000
- Memphis Grizzlies +6000
- Minnesota Timberwolves +8000
How do I read and understand NBA futures Odds?
When looking at the odds to win the title, whether NBA or conference and division odds, the performance is the same. For example, the Mavericks have a line of +75000 to win the championship, which implies that a $100 bet could generate $75,000, totaling $75,100. However, it is crucial to consider that they have lost Anthony Davis for the season and Kyrie Irving to a knee injury. Klay Thompson has requested a trade, and other players have also been absent recently, making it difficult to chase such high odds.
How do injuries affect NBA Finals odds?
Injuries to key players significantly impact NBA championship odds. Following the Luka-for-AD trade, Luka debuted strongly with 26 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists, and three blocks but soon injured his adductor in a non-contact incident, leaving the game. Before the trade, the Mavericks had around +1000 championship odds, which shifted to +3000 after Luka’s injury. Currently, those odds have dramatically increased. With only seven or eight healthy players recently, they’re constrained by the salary cap and can’t sign anyone, even on a 10-day contract.
^Who are the favorites to win the NBA Finals?
In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder, L.A. Lakers and Denver Nuggets are the top sports betting favorites to win the title. In the East, the Boston Celtics, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the New York Knicks are highest on the odds list.
^NBA Championship Odds provided by Xbet
Which NBA teams have the best chance to win the championship?
The Oklahoma City Thunder did split a back-to-back with Denver, losing the Monday finale, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the roster stopped Nikola Jokic in a duel between MVP candidates on Sunday. The Thunder beat Boston at the TD Garden to finish the week and now have gone 8-1 since they let a 25-point lead get away from them against Minnesota near the end of February. But that still means two wins over fellow Finals contenders in the last week.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have two 15-game winning streaks and a 12-game winning streak so far this season. You might argue that they’re in the Eastern Conference, which is significantly weaker than the West. The argument about relative strength is a valid one, but the Cavs have beaten Boston, Oklahoma City and Denver this season. When they’re playing teams with top-10 NET ratings, they have the best NET rating in the league. This team has depth and balance and can win in the clutch.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics had a nice five-game winning streak going before losing at home to Oklahoma City. That run included wins over Denver and the Lakers. While Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have been getting the accolades for the Celtics’ play, let’s not overlook Al Horford. Over his last 10 games, he is putting up 11.4 points, 8.0 boards, 2.3 assists and 2.3 made three-balls, shooting 41.8% from behind the arc. When Horford is playing, the Celtics have a total point differential that is closer to a 65-win team instead of the 47 victories that they have at this point.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors aren’t a top-three team on either conference’s odds list to win the title, but since the Jimmy Butler trade, they’ve gone 13-1 and are riding a six-game winning streak at this writing. Oh, and Stephen Curry just became the first and only member of the 4,000-three point makes club. This is a team that appears to be peaking at just the right time, and based on how Jimmy Butler played for Philadelphia and Miami, the Warriors have some time before he melts down and becomes a cancer in the locker room.
N.Y. Knicks
The Knicks are playing without Jalen Brunson (ankle) right now, but they still got impressive wins in Sacramento and Portland. The key during Burnson’s absence has been the team’s balanced scoring. In the win at Sacramento, Mikal Bridges dropped 33 points. In both of those road wins, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby both broke the 20-point mark. Brunson is the focus of the Knicks’ offense, but this wealth of options makes the Knicks much more dangerous.
Are the Lakers real title contenders without Anthony Davis? His departure took a way a real strength (his presence in the paint on both ends of the floor). Now LeBron James is on the shelf for multiple weeks with a groin injury. The Lakers lost the game when he got injured and then took Ls against the NEts and the Bucks. With LeBron off the floor, we could see Luka opening up the offense and taking over games – he went off for 45 in Thursday’s loss to the Bucks. However, just like in Dallas, Doncic can’t carry this team to a title all by himself.
Looking for a dark horse?
Take a look at the Houston Rockets. Even with veteran point guard Fred VanVleet on the shelf, they went 8-8 in the 16 games he missed – an 0-4 start to that stretch followed by an 8-4 finish. Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green hopefully have more confidence after having to carry the team in Van Vleet’s absence. With his defense and shooting back, the Rockets stopped the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday.
^How do I analyze team matchups for the NBA playoffs?
Some teams are just matchup nightmares for one another. One team might have won 55 or 60 games in the regular season, but if they hit a bad matchup in the playoffs against a team that barely won 45, things can get interesting in a hurry.
To give you an example, let’s look at how the Knicks look in potential matchups against the Milwaukee Bucks, one of the Knicks’ possible first-round playoff opponents.
Milwaukee acquired Kevin Porter Jr., Kyle Kuzma, and Jericho Sims at the trade deadline, significantly boosting their defense, which is now in the top five since early February. They’ve achieved a 10-6 record in their last 16 games. The Knicks, who previously dominated the Bucks, winning twice before the trades, will face them again in late March. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 62 points in those wins, exploiting Brook Lopez’s defensive limitations. To counter this, the Bucks may have Lopez guard Josh Hart and adjust their wing assignments. If Jalen Brunson returns, he’ll aim to add to his previous 44-point performance against Milwaukee, giving the Knicks a strong chance to secure the series win.
^What are the best strategies for betting on the NBA Finals?
In today’s NBA, a team ideally needs two superstars and a third scoring option. The Mavericks, featuring Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, were outmatched by the Celtics in the Finals, who had the trio of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick Whyte. While the Mavericks had skilled contributors, like Tim Hardaway Jr., they lacked consistent scoring depth. To improve, assessing playoff records and NET ratings to evaluate team balance is crucial.
^When is the best time to place a bet on the NBA championship?
In basketball, the regular season consists of 82 games, followed by four best-of-seven playoff rounds, making it a challenging journey to the playoffs and success beyond. Betting before the trade deadline is questionable, as teams often make significant changes during this time. Last year, the Mavericks notably improved by trading for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, altering their odds. Historically, the franchise has struggled in free agency and trades. As playoffs approach, imbalances will emerge, but one must act before the opportunity to leverage these imbalances fades.
^How do I manage my bankroll when betting on NBA futures?
Bankroll management really doesn’t change much from one sport to another. The first step involves figuring out just how much is in your bankroll – the amount of money you can safely put at risk on sports betting without putting your living expenses in jeopardy.
Once you’ve figured out the size of your bankroll, then decide how much to allocate for each bet. Most betting experts suggest putting between 1 and 3 percent of your bankroll down on each wager. So if your bankroll is $5,000, then you would put down between $50 and $150 on any one wager. That way your losses don’t get out of hand.
Now (to go back to the Dallas Mavericks example one more time), if you put $100 down on the Mavericks at +1000 to win the title, and you’ve seen those odds balloon into the stratosphere, you might have decided to double down and put down $500 on the Lakers, thinking that the addition of Luka to a team that already has LeBron James on it has to win the title.
He does have four rings – two with the Heat, one with the Cavaliers, and one with the Lakers, but he hasn’t won with the Lakers since 2020. Anthony Davis was tired of playing center, preferring to have another player inside while he focused on one of the forward positions, and with Davis gone, the Lakers have even less of an inside presence than they did before.
The Lakers tend to have shorter odds than they should because of their name and reputation, so don’t send good money after bad with that sort of emotional wager.
^PLAYOFF PICTURE
— NBA (@NBA) March 16, 2025
31 days from the #SoFiPlayIn.
35 days from the #NBAPlayoffs presented by Google. pic.twitter.com/HqevDhLdft
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