The NBA postseason is underway, starting with a scramble for the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference. The top six seeds went to the first- through sixth-place teams in the regular-season standings, but now the seventh- through tenth-place teams will square off in a three-night tournament that crowns the seventh and eighth seeds. On Tuesday, the seventh- and eighth-place teams meet, and on Wednesday, the ninth- and tenth-place teams meet. How should you organize your NBA betting on these games with respect to the point total? We have some suggestions for you to consider.
NBA Betting News: Over/Under Picks for the Play-In Tournament
Atlanta Hawks (+5.5) at Miami Heat (O/U 227.5)
Tuesday, April 11 – 7:30 pm ET, TNT
The Hawks and Heat played four times this season, and here were the outcomes, in chronological order:
- Miami 106, @Atlanta 98 (204)
- @Atlanta 121, Miami 113 (234)
- @Miami 117, Atlanta 109 (226)
- @Miami 130, Atlanta 128 (258)
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo missed some time over the course of the regular season, but they both played in all four games against the Hawks. Kyle Lowry will return at point guard after missing 27 games this season, and that should solidify the Heat offense even more. Notice that, over the course of the season, the point total between these two teams increased.
Down the stretch, the Heat won four of five, scoring at least 118 points and as many as 129 points (twice) in those wins. In their loss (to Washington) they still managed 108 points. This suggests that the offense is up and running. The Hawks split their last six games, but even in two of their losses, they scored 131 points (against Philadelphia) and 114 points (in Boston). In their three wins, they scored between 123 and 134 points. Take the over.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+8.5) at L.A. Lakers (O/U 232.5)
Tuesday, April 11 – 10:00 pm ET, TNT
The Timberwolves played the Lakers three times this season, and here are the outcomes in chronological order:
- @Minnesota 111, L.A. Lakers 102 (213)
- Minnesota 110, @L.A. Lakers 102 (212)
- L.A. Lakers 123, @Minnesota 111 (234)
This point total for Wednesday is one that the two teams would only have gone over in one of their three meetings; the other two were well below it. Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert will not play in the game, serving a one-game team suspension for punching a teammate in the huddle in the team’s regular-season finale.
The Lakers will have Anthony Davis and LeBron James on the floor, and both are playing well. The team has scored at least 116 points in 10 straight games, but defense in the playoffs tends to stiffen a bit. Take the under.
Chicago Bulls (+5.5) at Toronto Raptors (O/U 214.5)
Wednesday, April 12 – 7:00 pm ET, ESPN
These teams met three times in the regular season, and here are the outcomes in chronological order:
- @Toronto 113, Chicago 104 (217)
- @Chicago 111, Toronto 97 (208)
- @Toronto 104, Chicago 98 (202)
The Bulls won four of six down the stretch and have had to deal with the absence of point guard Lonzo Ball all season, who went down with a knee injury. The team added Patrick Beverley via trade to stabilize the offense. It’s worth noting that the Bulls did not win in Toronto this season and went 18-23 on the road overall. In the three games with Toronto, the Bulls turned the ball over 57 times, and DeMar DeRozan only put up 14 points per game, far below his season scoring average.
Toronto has a solid transition offense, and their defense is stout, led by O.G. Anunoby, who will spend most of his time guarding DeRozan. The Raptors only turned the ball over 34 times in those games. However, the Raptors only saw Beverley on the last of the three matchups. Take the under.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U 228.5)
Wednesday, April 12 – 9:30 pm ET, ESPN
These teams met four times in the regular season, and here are the outcomes in chronological order:
- @New Orleans 105, Oklahoma City 101 (206)
- New Orleans 128, @Oklahoma City 125 (OT) (233)
- New Orleans 103, @Oklahoma City 100 (203)
- Oklahoma City 110, @New Orleans 96 (206)
In the first matchup, the Pelicans were led by Zion Williamson, but his fragility continues to haunt the franchise, as a hamstring injury that sidelined him after play on January 2 has him still out – and out for the postseason as well. His inability to maintain fitness during his time out means that he will not be able to return. The Pelicans split their two games with the Thunder after Williamson went down to injury.
Only one of these four matchups went over 228 ½ points, and that was the meeting that went to overtime. With the elevated defense that often shows up in the playoffs, I predict another closely fought game that goes to the Pelicans, and take the under.
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