NBA Playoffs Odds, Lines: Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors Analysis and Prediction

NBA Playoffs Odds, Lines: Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors Analysis and Prediction

Written by on April 18, 2023

Many sports betting prognosticators, including this one, are surprised to see the Sacramento Kings heading to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors while holding a 2-0 series lead. The Kings followed up an impressive Game 1 victory with a 114-106 win in Game 2 on Monday, in which center Damontas Sabonis went down in a tangle, getting stomped on the chest by Warriors center Daymond Green. Sabonis hopped back up and ended up leading the Kings with 24 points and was just assessed a technical foul for his part (grabbing Green’s foot). Green, though, was suspended for Game 3 after receiving a flagrant 2 for the play. The Warriors are angry about the suspension, which the NBA justified by calling Green a “repeat offender” with this sort of incident. That anger could propel the Warriors to a big win in Game 3…or Green’s absence could make the Kings’ job even easier. Read on to get our NBA betting prediction.

 

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Quarterfinal Preview
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, Game 3

   

Why should you bet on the Kings?

In Game 2, Golden State had a better shooting percentage than did Sacramento, and the Warriors made more shots from behind the three-point arc, but the Kings got to the line 11 more times, making six more free throws. They also forced 20 Golden State turnovers while only coughing the ball up 14 times themselves. On the glass, they got three more offensive rebounds. This shows that the Kings were putting up more effort inside the arc – driving to the basket and grabbing rebounds.

Damontas Sabonis added nine rebounds to go along with those 24 points, and De’Aaron Fox had 24 points of his own, to go along with nine assists. Malik Monk, who went off in Game 1, came off the bench to add 18, and Kevin Huerter chipped in 15. Davion Mitchell not only scored 14 points, but he played timely defense on Stephen Curry that kept the Warriors from going off on any of their scorching offensive runs.


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Why should you put your money on the Warriors?

The Warriors understand the danger of falling into an 0-3 hole in this series, as coming back from this sort of deficit has almost never happened in the history of the NBA. When you have a team with the playoff seasoning that the Warriors have in this situation, you have players who understand that the time to win is now.

In Game 2, Stephen Curry did put up 28 points, but he clanked 10 of his 13 three-point attempts. It’s hard to imagine him shooting that poorly on his home floor, and I expect head coach Steve Kerr to make adjustments to free Curry up from Mitchell’s defense. Andrew Wiggins had 22 points for Golden State, and Klay Thompson added 21, but I expect big games out of these two contributors as well. The team should come together in Green’s absence to match his effort in the paint.


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Final Score and Prediction

If you think the Warriors will come home and win by 30, then you’re underestimating the Kings and what they bring in terms of offensive intensity. They attack the rim, they move the ball well, and they play patient ball, striking quickly when the opportunity allows. Their defense is tough inside and quick on the perimeter. However, the Warriors should come out with a massive chip on their collective shoulder, and I expect them to win. I predict a final score of Golden State 120, Sacramento 112.

 

Glorious ending between Warriors vs Kings, Game 2

 
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