This week, the buzz around the NBA playoffs is all about the play-in tournament. The Minnesota Timberwolves let the L.A. Lakers off the mat in their play-in game on Tuesday, and the Lakers now have the seventh seed and will face second-seeded Memphis in the first round. In the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks went to Miami and upset the Heat to take the seventh seed. Let’s break down what we know about the Western Conference matchups as you lay out your NBA betting for the first round.
NBA News: Western Conference Playoff Matchups
(1) Denver Nuggets vs (8) TBA
At this point, the New Orleans Pelicans, the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Minnesota Timberwolves could all snag the 8-seed, so let’s focus on Denver here. The first reason to back the Nuggets is Nikola Jukic, who according to Lineups.com, posted a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 31.70 this year, the seventh-best number in the history of the NBA. His career PER ranks only behind Michael Jordan. Jokic is basically a triple-double machine who takes over games regularly.
In terms of shooting, the Nuggets are fourth in the NBA in three-point shooting, with five different players shooting 39 percent or better from behind the arc. In terms of the “little things,” Denver is fourth in fewest fouls committed, second best in scores from assists (which speaks to ball movement) and has the fourth-best rebound percentage. The weakness is depth. Their bench is 30th in net rating, only behind San Antonio, and they are last in turnover percentage. This is a team that will have to ride its starting rotation to the second round, and to a title.
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs (7) L.A. Lakers
Charles Barkley has picked the Lakers to win this series, and he’s far from alone. The Lakers have the top record in the West since the All-Star break (16-7). Ja Morant has returned for the Grizzlies, but Anthony Davis and LeBron James are healthy and playing healthy at the same time. Davis has ranged between injured and amazing and trade bait. Russell Westbrook was shipped out of town, and things improved. Since that trade, the Lakers are third in defense and seventh in net rating. D’Angelo Russell came to town in the trade, and he leads the Lakers with 2.7 three-balls per game. Malik Beasley joined him, and he is making 2.5 three-balls per game. Adding shooters around James has helped, and when the Lakers have Russell, AD and LeBron playing, they have gone 9-2. The Lakers have benefited from an easy end to their season, and now they get a Grizzlies team that won’t have Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, which means AD should have plenty of room to romp inside. The Grizzlies do have Jaren Jackson Jr, but Davis has shown he can get him into foul trouble. Xavier Tillman is the only rim defender left who has had luck slowing down AD, but right now, the Lakers are the smart pick for the upset.
(3) Sacramento Kings vs (6) Golden State Warriors
Golden State won three of the four meetings between these two teams and are a relatively heavy favorite (-290) to win this series. In the last meeting, Golden State won by 22, but the Kings rested starters Kevin Huerter, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. The Kings led the league in scoring this season, with 120.7 points per game, but they permitted 118.1 points per game, just 25th best. Golden State was 21st in fewest points permitted per game (117.1) but their offense was second-best in scoring (118.9), and they were tops in the league in three-pointers made per game (16.6).
The numbers are similar, but the Warriors have all of the intangibles, including experience. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have not lost a first-round playoff series since 2014 when playing together. Andrew Wiggins is back, along with Donte DiVincenzo and Gary Payton II, to shore up perimeter defense. The Warriors have struggled on the road this year, but they just need one road win to take this series. I like the Warriors to win here.
(4) Phoenix Suns vs (5) L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are heavy underdogs in this series (+400) despite splitting the season series with Phoenix this year. The road team went 4-0 during the season, but the Clippers have not played Phoenix with Kevin Durant. KD has recovered from an ankle injury, and the Suns are 8-0 with him on the floor. He’s playing well with Devin Booker and Chris Paul, and the Clippers don’t have Paul George. Yes, they have Kawhi Leonard and a solid cast of supporters, but if the Suns can’t win this series, it will be even more of a disappointment than that Game 7 evisceration that Dallas delivered last year.
NBA Top 10 Plays Of The Play-In Tournament Series, April 11, 2023
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