The health of the Philadelphia 76ers, often a question the past few seasons, is showing signs of wear as the 2022-23 NBA regular season starts to wind down. James Harden missed three games in a row with a sore Achilles tendon, and now that he is ready to return Monday night in Denver, Joel Embiid will miss the game with a sore right calf. Embiid played both ends of a back-to-back over the weekend, against Golden State and Phoenix, but after a shootaround Monday morning, the 76ers opted to give him the night off. As we enter the regular season’s 23rd week, let’s take a look at some matchups that have NBA betting leverage for you on the point total.
NBA News: Over/Under Picks for Week 23
Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5) at Detroit Pistons (O/U 227.5)
Monday, March 27 at 7:00 pm ET | This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season between the two teams. Milwaukee (53-21) has won each of the first meetings, two of them by 20 or more points. The Bucks lost to Denver on Saturday, but they still have the best record in the league. They lead the Nuggets by three games in the race for the best mark, and they lead Boston by two. Since January 1, the Bucks have gone 30-9, and they are trying to secure home-court advantage for the entire playoffs. In the loss to the Nuggets, the Bucks led by three at halftime but then got outscored by 20 in the second half, resulting in a 126-109 loss. The team struggled to make shots, except for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had 31 points in 32 minutes. The Bucks’ defense is second in adjusted defensive rating, allowing the lowest effective field goal percentage.
The Pistons (16-58) appear to be all about the tank right now. They have won consecutive games just once this season, and since February 1, they have posted a 3-19 mark. Cade Cunningham, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart and Alec Burks are all on the shelf. On Friday, the Pistons made it five losses in a row with a 21-point beating at the hands of the Toronto Raptors, a game in which Detroit made just 24% of their shots from behind the three-point line and turned the ball over 22 times. Each starter had a plus-minus rating of -10 or worse. I see this turning into another beating, but given the stout Bucks’ defense, this should be a laugher by the end of the third period, which should mean lots of reserves for the Bucks. Take the under.
Dallas Mavericks (-4.5) at Indiana Pacers (O/U 238.5)
Monday, March 27 at 7:00 pm ET | The Pacers (33-42) won the first meeting between these two teams, 124-122, in Dallas last month, but they lost in Atlanta in their last game. Indiana’s defense got torched by Atlanta on Saturday, losing 143-130. Tyrese Haliburton put up 19 in the loss and had 20 or more points in each of the four games before that. Myles Turner dropped 24 points on Dallas, and the veteran center hopes to return after missing Saturday’s game with a sore back, due to the fact that the Mavericks have no interior defense.
The Mavericks (36-39) have lost four in a row and 13 of 18 as they get an Eastern Conference swing underway. They lost at home to Charlotte by eight and in Charlotte by six on Friday and Sunday, games in which the Mavericks were 16- and 13-point favorites, respectively. Luka Doncic continues to deliver points, with at least 30 points in all but two games in March. However, his complaints about officiating earned him his 16th technical foul of the season on Sunday, and he would have been suspended for Monday’s contest, but the league rescinded the technical. The Mavericks had been scoring a lot of points before the weekend of disappointment against Charlotte, when they did not score more than 110 points in either game. Their defense has ranged between inattentive and ridiculous, so the Pacers should be able to score just as easily as the Hornets did all weekend. With two teams who can score easily – but have little in the way of defense – I plan to take the over.
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