Updated NBA Championship Odds – April 23rd

Fifteen of the 16 teams that entered the National Basketball Association postseason are still alive — although the San Antonio Spurs are in a 3-1 hole, as are the Miami Heat (which explains their tumble to the bottom of the odds ladder). However, we have seen some huge shifts in the postseason moneylines. If you jumped on Philadelphia to win the title back when the futures were first posted, you could have gotten a +15000 payday. Now those odds have dropped to +900 thanks to their punishment of the Miami Heat so far in the first round. Golden State has largely held serve (although they did drop Game Four in San Antonio over the weekend), but Houston didn’t look that good in their Game Three loss to Minnesota — the Timberwolves’ first playoff win since 2004, so their odds have slipped a bit. Let’s look at your NBA championship odds for each of the 15 remaining teams.

Updated NBA Championship Odds – April 23rd

Along with tying the Cavaliers’ series against the Pacers 2-2, @KingJames became the 2nd player in NBA history with 100 30-point games in NBA playoff history. You’ve probably heard of the other guy. pic.twitter.com/VEZEa2zCI3

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 23, 2018

• Golden State Warriors         -105
• Houston Rockets                  +185
• Toronto Raptors                   +850
• Philadelphia 76ers                +900
• Cleveland Cavaliers              +1100
• Utah Jazz                               +2800
• Oklahoma City Thunder      +5000
• New Orleans Pelicans          +5000
• Indiana Pacers                      +6000
• Boston Celtics                       +6600
• Milwaukee Bucks                  +10000
• Washington Wizards                        +10000
• Minnesota Timberwolves    +10000
• Miami Heat                             +25000
• San Antonio Spurs               +25000

I’m not worried by the Houston loss to Minnesota. The Timberwolves finally got Jimmy Butler back after missing 17 games with knee troubles, and if they had him down the stretch in the regular season, they wouldn’t have slid to the eighth seed. Given how tightly the Western Conference finished, they might have been as high as the 3-seed or the 4-seed. The Timberwolves have elite young talent inside as well, with Karl-Anthony Towns. However, I like the Rockets to settle down against what will be a raucous Minnesota crowd in Game Four and deliver the win. LeBron James had to play 46 minutes in Game Four for Cleveland against Indiana. He put up 32 points and led the way to a four-point win, in a game in which Cleveland had a double-digit lead but saw the Pacers erase it, forcing the Cavaliers to come back late for the win. This team is reminiscent of the Cavalier squads that LeBron played on during his first stint with the team, when he would carry the team as far as he could in the playoffs before things fell apart. That’s not going to be good enough for the Cavaliers to win the title — and this is with a roster that LeBron handpicked at the trade deadline. However, if Cleveland escapes Indiana, they’ll get a Toronto team that they absolutely own, before meeting (at least according to favorites trends) Philadelphia in the conference finals, a series that would be a classic to watch. I’m not sure LeBron can carry Cleveland past Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz.

Who Should Be Your Value Pick?

Your value pick to consider out west is the New Orleans Pelicans. Rajon Rondo hasn’t looked this interested in a postseason series since he won it all in Boston in 2008. Anthony Davis basically made the whole Portland frontcourt look silly in a four-game sweep that was even easier than it looked. Why should you consider the Pelicans as a value pick in that stacked Western Conference? Portland tries to do what Golden State does — run and gun, score as many points as possible, without worrying a whole lot about defense and rebounding. The Pelicans were able to shut down that approach — and made it look easy. Golden State isn’t close to 100% this year, and if New Orleans can pull off the upset against Houston in the second round, Anthony Davis suddenly becomes the face of the championship chase in the West. So how about Golden State or Houston? I still like the Rockets more than I like the Warriors — their ceiling is still higher on offense, and they have a level of hunger that Golden State hasn’t shown in some time. Neither team worries a whole lot about defense, although Harden got rave reviews for his D in Game Two, when his jump shot basically disappeared. Houston wants what Golden State has, and that will make the difference if those two teams meet in the conference finals.