At this writing, only one division remains in play in the 2020-2021 NBA regular season, as the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat could both take the Southeast Division crown.
We will take a look at the NBA betting odds for each of those two teams to win the title, along with a comparative look at their point in the standings, as well as their remaining games.
NBA News: Updated Odds to Win Each Division
Southeast Division Odds
Atlanta Hawks -500
Miami Heat +350
| Team | W | L | Games Back | Games Remaining | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 39 | 31 | – | 2 (ORL, HOU) | |
| Miami Heat | 38 | 31 | ½ | 3 (PHI, @MIL, DET) |
With Miami just a half-game back, why are the Hawks such prohibitive favorites? The answer is that Atlanta has a couple of games against lottery-bound teams (Orlando and Houston), and both of those are at home.
Miami has a much tougher road to the end. They do have a game in hand, but two of their three remaining games are against top East contenders — conference-leading Philadelphia at home, and then a trip to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. The 76ers and the Bucks do not really have games to take easy, though, because the standings at the top are so close. The 76ers have not clinched the top seed, and the Bucks can still overtake the Nets and possibly the 76ers, depending on how the last few days go. Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker over Brooklyn, so they would win that division either way, but they could still slide past the Bucks at this time. So when the Heat host Detroit in that season finale, they will have gone through a gauntlet — and a good playoff warmup.
With this in mind, it is difficult to argue for heavy betting on either end of this wager. Miami has a low probability of taking a division title that does not mean much more than a trophy. In the East standings, Atlanta sits in fourth, while the Heat sit in fifth. If that remains unchanged, then Atlanta would host the Heat in a first-round series. Miami cannot climb higher than fourth, which means their first-round series with the Hawks is almost set. The fly in the ointment is the New York Knicks, who have the same 38-31 record as the Heat. Miami holds the tiebreaker against the Knicks, who finish with three games at home (San Antonio, Charlotte, and Boston). All three of those teams are in the mix as far as playoff seeding go, so life will not be easy for the Knicks either. The Heat are likely to be much more interested in staying above the Knicks (and thereby avoiding a first-round series against one of the top three teams in the conference) than catching Atlanta in the division race.
So as you plan your sports betting down the stretch in the NBA, I suggest that you focus on individual game wagers more than division futures. As we get closer to the playoffs, the fact that ten teams head to the postseason in each conference makes the futures wagering market a lot more interesting. It is likely that, looking at championship futures, things will boil down to the top three in the East, with the West a lot more open. Milwaukee, Brooklyn and Philadelphia all have offenses that are head and shoulders above the rest of the East, while Philadelphia is the best in terms of defense. All of this assumes, though, that Joel Embiid, who has had foot, leg and back issues throughout the years, remains healthy.
In the West, each team in the top ten has positive factors but also questions. Utah still leads the conference, but they have two key starters (Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley) on the shelf. Phoenix has held steady all year long, but Chris Paul’s hamstring has had a way of going out at just the wrong time for postseason success in the past. The Clippers have also had injury issues and have had a hard time coalescing on defense in some of their key matchups. Denver has lost Jamal Murray, although Austin Rivers has come on to provide some clutch offense. Dallas has an extremely high ceiling on offense, but defense and rebounding are problems — and the Portland Trail Blazers have much the same situation. Stay tuned as the last few days of the regular season edge by.
NBA Betting Odds
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