Yesterday, we put out our updated sports betting odds to win the NBA’s Eastern Conference, and today we turn our attention to the West. The two conferences have different competitive tenors right now — and have had for several years now. As of this writing, the ninth seed in the West would hold the fourth seed in the East, based on win-loss record.
Let’s take a look at the latest NBA odds in the West as well as some of our thoughts on the conference’s most intriguing teams.
NBA News: Updated Odds to Win the Western Conference
| Team | Odds |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +125 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +260 |
| Utah Jazz | +400 |
| Denver Nuggets | +1300 |
| Phoenix Suns | +1800 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +3000 |
| Golden State WArriors, Portland Trail Blazers | +3500 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +6600 |
| Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs | +10000 |
| Houston Rockets | +20000 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings | +25000 |
Phoenix is 14-3 since January 28. In all three of those losses, it was the defense that was the problem. They lost to Charlotte on a night when the Hornets put up 79 points in the paint or on the free line. Interestingly, they have been much better when either Devin Booker or Chris Paul is on the floor as opposed to when both have been on the floor at the same time; with just one of them, they are +13.4 points per 100 possessions; with both, they are just +3.8 per 100. Their offense was second in the NBA in February, with six players shooting at least 39 percent from downtown. Meanwhile, Booker moved down to the block when Portland put guards on him, and he has 1.18 points per possession on post-ups, sixth in the league. However, they have only played seven games against the West’s other playoff contenders, posting a 4-3 record.
Golden State is rising lately not just because of Steph Curry, but also because of their defense. In the last three weeks of February, they ranked first in the league, with eight of their 12 opponents scoring fewer than 105 points per 100 possessions. They are in the top ten in percentage of opponent shots taken in the restricted area and shooting percentage permitted in the restricted area. The other two teams in the top ten in both areas are Milwaukee and Utah, so that’s quality company. Kelly Oubre Jr and Andrew Wiggins have defended more shots at the rim than any other Warrior, and Draymond Green has only allowed 50 percent shooting by opponents at the rim. They are only 5-7 in games against other playoff contenders, though.
San Antonio leads the league in assist-turnover ratio (2.25). In fact, if it holds up, it will be the best number in the history of the NBA. The Spurs did try to cough up a ten-point fourth quarter lead to New Orleans, but a solid pick-and-roll between Jakob Poeltl and DeMar DeRozan kept order for the Spurs. Poeltl is still a starter, while LaMarcus Aldridge has been a bench player after missing six games with a hip injury. The Spurs did win five of those games, and they are climbing the West standings. Given the number of man-games missed due to COVID-19 safety and health protocols and it’s hard not to look at Gregg Popovich as a potential Coach of the Year.
Dallas has won nine of 11, and a big reason is Luka Doncic, whose three-point shot finally showed up. He nailed not one, but two, step-back three-pointers in the last 20 seconds of a win over Boston in which the Celtics had clawed all the way back from a 12-point deficit. The less heralded factor in Dallas’ recent success is Villanova standout Jalen Brunson, who has an effective field goal percentage of 64 percent in the last ten games. In that win over Boston, Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr and Willie Cauley-Stein (all bench players) were on the floor at the end. How much defense will Kristaps Porzingis be able to contribute at the rim? He’s spent the first half of the season playing his way into game shape; if he can get his defense back to where it was last season, this is an interesting West sleeper.
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