Well, our Christmas Day picks didn’t quite work out, as we had the Lakers (+7.5) covering in Dallas and the Bucks (+4.5) covering in Boston. The Lakers actually had the game in hand at halftime in Dallas before the Mavericks set a franchise record with 51 points in the third quarter, unable to miss from behind the arc. The Lakers did fight back from a 19-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter and almost covered, losing by nine. The Bucks, on other hand, ran into a buzzsaw in Boston, losing by 18. We’ll do our best to get back on a NBA betting winning streak with these two picks early in Week 11.
NBA News: Top Bets for Week 11
→ Tuesday, December 27
Phoenix Suns (+7.5) at Memphis Grizzlies (O/U 226.5) (8:00 pm ET)
Phoenix takes its 19-15 record east to face the 20-12 Grizzlies. This is the team’s second matchup during the 2022-23 regular season; the Grizzlies routed the Suns, 125-100, on December 23. In their last game, Phoenix fell to Denver in overtime, 128-125, as their defense fell apart in the fourth quarter. The Suns are eighth in scoring (115.5 points per game), and their leading scorer is Devin Booker (27.1 points per game). At this writing, though, he is questionable for the game due to an injury he suffered against the Nuggets, so you will want to check the latest injury news before locking your wager. Defense has been a problem for the Suns, as they give up 36.5% shooting from behind the arc, which ranks 24th. Their rebounding (43.3 per game) is average (16th overall).
The Grizzlies are ninth in the league in scoring (115.5 points per game) despite ranking 19th in shooting (46.6%). Ja Morant is the top scorer with 26.8 points per game; the main issue that Memphis has on offense is three-point shooting, as they rank 18th in the league with a 34.7% make rate. Their free throw percentage (71%) is dead last in the league, which will come back to bite them in tight matchups. The Memphis defense, though, is elite, as they lead the league in lowest shooting percentage permitted (44.7%), and they close out well on the perimeter, limiting opponents to 35.6% three-point shooting (13th). They lead the league in rebounding as well (48.8 per game). Grizzlies to win and cover.
Denver Nuggets (-3.5) at Sacramento Kings (O/U 240.5) (10:00 pm ET)
The Sacramento Kings (17-14) got off to a red-hot start to 2022-23 before falling off the table. They have won three of five, though, and may be on the way back up. The Nuggets (21-11) have won four in a row and seven of eight, and they may be establishing themselves as the top team in the West after beating Memphis, Portland and Phoenix in their recent streak. Nikola Jokic has put up multiple triple-doubles in the streak, once again showing his MVP credentials. In the Nuggets’ Christmas Day win over Phoenix, Jokic had 41 points, 15 rebounds and 15 assists, only the fourth 40-15-15 game in league history. The Nuggets grabbed enough turnovers to score 21 points in transition and had 52 points in the paint. It was Aaron Gordon’s earth-shattering dunk (which would go viral) that put an emphatic stamp on overtime, staking the Nuggets to a three-point lead they would not relinquish.
Domantas Sabonis injured his hand in the Kings’ loss to Washington, and that loss will hurt, as he has put up 17.9 points and 12.4 boards per game. He had his second straight triple-double (20 points, 15 boards, 10 assists) in the loss to Washington, while De’Aaron Fox chipped in 26 points and Malik Monk contributed 16, but the Kings’ defense allowed the Wizards to shoot 55.7% from the floor and score 70 points in the paint. The Kings are second in the league in scoring (118.1 points per game), but their defense permits 116.2 points per contest, which explains some of their setbacks. Denver to win and cover.
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