2018 Final Four Betting: Villanova Analysis, Odds and Predictions

The Sporting News gives the Villanova Wildcats a 70.34% chance of knocking off Kansas in the national semifinal on Saturday and a 48.97% chance of winning the national championship, almost twice the probability that they give Michigan to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Villanova does enter the game as one of the tournament’s four 1-seeds — and they had beaten another 1-seed (Xavier) by a total of 40 points in their two conference games. Check out our Final Four betting analysis of the chances Villanova has to take home their second national championship in the last three seasons.

2018 Final Four Betting: Villanova Analysis, Odds and Predictions

A Lone Star Welcome! #FinalFour #LetsMarchNova #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/S8F2CEoRqN

— Villanova MBB (@NovaMBB) March 29, 2018

What flaws do the Wildcats have?

It’s admittedly hard to find cracks in the case to bet for Villanova rolling to a national title. After all, they have won each of their tournament games by double figures, and that included a dusting of a West Virginia team that gives headaches to its opposition with their frantic full-court press. They wore down a Texas Tech team that was designed along the same lines as Villanova — terrific offense inside and out but a philosophy that preaches smothering defense first — simply by doing the same things at a significantly higher level. This is a team that doesn’t have any seniors, so one could talk about the team being raw, but this is not a sport where the best players stick around for four years anymore.

Why should you bet on Villanova?

Remember that Villanova beat Texas Tech by 12 on a night when the Red Raider defense absolutely hounded the Wildcats into one of their worst nights on offense from the entire season. Guard Donte DiVincenzo said in an interview with CBS Sports that the exchanges with Texas Tech were much like what practice looks like day in and day out for Villanova. Even though the shots weren’t falling from downtown against Texas Tech, Villanova was able to win because they changed their approach, focusing more on scoring in the paint, both through their big men as well as through penetration from their guards and small forwards. They have at least four players on this team who will be in the NBA next season — DiVincenzo, Mikal Bridges, Omari Spellman and Jalen Brunson. One fascinating difference between Villanova and some of the other college “superteams” out there (hello, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, and so on) is that Villanova doesn’t have any players with outsize egos on their team. They have players with talent and size — but also with a level head on their shoulders. That makes a huge difference in all phases of the game, but particularly crunch time, when outsized egos can cause mistakes in the making of decisions. Jalen Brunson is the best player on any of the four teams that will take the floor in San Antonio. Having the best player doesn’t always mean that you’re going to roll to a championship, but the fact that he already has the experience of knowing what it takes to make it through March Madness in victorious fashion makes a huge difference.

Final Four Betting Prediction

Villanova has won 134 games over the past four seasons. Only one team has ever put up a better mark over four seasons, and that was the 137 wins that Memphis posted under John Calipari (a program that would have some wins vacated due to NCAA infractions). However, there is not a scent of impropriety in Jay Wright’s Villanova program. The Wildcats won their title two years ago with that amazing buzzer-beater to stop North Carolina, but this is a team that looks even stronger than that squad. That was a senior-heavy bunch that improved over the course of the tournament, but this team looks like it’s been building even more from that point, and now we see a team that meets the definition of “juggernaut.” I predict that Villanova will fight off Kansas and then Michigan to take the national title.