Two top seeds in the NCAA men’s tournament face off in the second national semifinal on Saturday evening from The Alamodome in San Antonio, as Villanova meets Kansas. Kansas needed overtime to eliminate Duke in the Elite Eight, as Malik Newman scored all 13 of the Jayhawks’ points by himself in an 85-81 thriller. Villanova wore down Texas Tech in their Elite Eight matchup, prevailing by a 71-59 score. The last time these squads met was two years ago, as Villanova eliminated Kansas in the Elite Eight, 64-59. The question is, who’s the favorite in the NCAA Basketball odds to make it to the big dance?
2018 Final Four: Kansas vs. Villanova NCAA Basketball Odds & Preview
When: Saturday, March 31, 2018, 8:49pm ETWhere: The Alamodome, San AntonioTV: TBSRadio: NoneLive Stream: March Madness LiveNCAA Basketball Odds: Villanova -5
Why should you bet on the Jayhawks?
Kansas just survived a grueling test against another contender, as they made it through the gauntlet of Duke’s offense and defense in a game that neither team had a lead larger than seven points. Kansas trailed into the last minute, but they tied it up in the waning seconds before Malik Newman just elevated his game to the next level. The keys for Kansas came in 43.5% shooting and outrebounding the Blue Devils, 47-32, as well as draining 13 shots from behind the arc. Newman’s 13 points in the extra frame gave him a career-best 32 for the day.
While Villanova does have the nation’s most prolific offense, Kansas ranks 29th with 81.4 points per game, and they emerged from a tough Big 12 slate that included fellow Elite Eight teams Texas Tech and Kansas State, as well as the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State, who didn’t make the NCAA Tournament but knocked off many of the best Big 12 teams in conference play. Questions emerged near the end of non-conference play about Kansas’ lack of depth, but the Jayhawks have simply shrugged them off and continued to win.
Why should you put your money on the Wildcats?
Villanova met Texas Tech’s stubborn defense with terrific balance on offense, as five different players put up points in double figures in the regional final. Jalen Brunson led the way with 15 points, and Donte DiVincenzo, Eric Paschall and Mikal Bridges all chipped in a dozen points apiece, and Omari Spellman added 11. Paschall was the leading rebounder, with 14 boards, and DiVincenzo pulled down eight rebounds of his own. Brunson is the team’s leading scorer for the season, averaging more than 19 points per contest, and the team led the nation in scoring with almost 87 points per contest.
Against Texas Tech, one important stat was the 29 free throws that Villanova made in 35 attempts, and this wasn’t an outlier, as they made 77.7% of their free throws on the season. They also outrebounded the Red Raiders, 51-33. The size and patience that Villanova has on the inside are a powerful counterpoint to their backcourt speed — and they are a major factor in their defensive efficiency. They only permit 70.5 points per game, which given the pace at which their offense likes to move the ball, is much better than their national ranking in points permitted (125th) would suggest. Their shooting percentages (50.3% overall and 40.5% from behind the three-point arc) make them dangerous, both inside and out.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
This might feel like the real national championship game, given the pairing of two top seeds in a semifinal, while a 3-seed and an 11-seed play on the other side of the bracket. Both Kansas and Villanova have NBA-level talent on their rosters, but Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson simply mount more of a 1-2 punch than any two players on the Jayhawks’ bench. Villanova’s defense and rebounding give them the edge over Kansas, which is why I’m predicting that the Wildcats will win, 78-70
