When the NCAA increased the size of the men’s college basketball tournament field from 64 to 68, they created a “First Four” play-in featuring eight teams playing for four spots in the first round. These games take place the Tuesday and Wednesday before the Thursday and Friday of the first round, and they all take place at the University of Dayton. Obviously, we don’t yet know which teams will go into these slots, because some of them go to automatic qualifiers from the mid-major conferences, and others go to teams in the higher conferences who snuck onto the bubble and made it through, but as of this writing, we are looking to these teams as we plot out potential College Basketball betting for March Madness.
NCAA News: March Madness First Four Predictions
Projected Teams
16 Texas Southern
Texas Southern (14-11, 12-4 SWAC) leads Alcorn State by a half-game in the conference standings. Southern is just 1 ½ games behind Texas Southern, but Southern has dropped two in a row. TSU started with a tough schedule and dropped seven in a row to start the season, but those losses were to some big programs, such as Oregon, BYU, NC State and Saint Mary’s, the WCC team that just beat Gonzaga. They went to Florida and delivered a 69-54 whipping against a team that stopped Auburn on that same court. They did lose to Southern for their most recent setback but have won three straight since then. If they can take the SWAC tournament, they would get the conference’s top seed.
16 University of New Orleans
The Privateers (16-11, 9-3 Southland) are still in first place in the conference but have dropped two in a row, losing at Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern State. That loss to Northwestern came by ten points despite 25 points from Derek St. Hilaire of the Privateers. Nicholls State also has a 9-3 record in the conference, and Southeast Louisiana has a 9-4 slate, so one of those three is most likely to snag the Southland Conference’s automatic bid, but with all three schools flailing a bit, we’re projecting the team currently in first.
16 Longwood
Longwood (23-6, 15-1 Big South) has a five-game winning streak going after an eight-point loss at North Carolina A&T. The Lancers beat Maryland-Baltimore County (that 16-seed that upended Virginia to become the first 16-seed ever to upset a 1-seed) by 27 points at home, and they went to Georgetown and lost by just eight. So this is a 16-seed I can see getting to the first round – but no further.
16 Norfolk St
Norfolk State (19-6, 10-2 MEAC) leads the conference standings by 1 ½ games over Howard with two games left on their regular-season slate. They lost to Morgan State two games ago but then beat South Carolina State their last time out. The only teams close to NCAA tournament quality that the Spartans have played this year are the Wichita State Shockers, who beat the Spartans by 13 at home, and the Xavier Musketeers, who beat the Spartans by 40 at home. So this is a team I would pick to get to the First Four – and then head home.
12 University of San Francisco
The Dons (23-8, 10-6 WCC) would be benefiting handsomely from the presence of Gonzaga in their conference if they were to get a bid. This is a team that lost to Grand Canyon and Portland, neither of whom will get close to March Madness. They did play BYU and St. Mary’s tough, but other than that, their tournament resume has very little on it. If they do get to the First Four, expect them to lose.
12 Indiana
The Hoosiers (18-10, 9-9 Big Ten) would need to beat Rutgers at home and then either beat Purdue on the road to round out their season or push at least to the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament to make it in. However, this is a team that could do just that, as they beat Purdue in their first matchup and have also split with Ohio State this season. They’re also a team that, should they get past the First Four, would put a scare in which ever 5-seed they faced.
11 Loyola-Chicago
Sister Jean’s Ramblers (22-7, 13-5 MVC) won’t win the conference’s regular season title after losing, 102-96, to Northern Iowa, who clinched the crown, but they could push hard in the MVC tournament – and this conference might get multiple bids anyway. Getting swept by Drake doesn’t help the Loyola resume, but this is a team that has built a name, and this is also a team that went to East Lansing and only lost to Michigan State by two.
11 Memphis
The Tigers (17-9, 11-5 AAC) have a name at head coach (Penny Hardaway) and a signature road win against a top team (over Houston). There’s also SMU, a half-game ahead of the Tigers in the conference standings, but SMU is 14-0 at home and 6-5 everywhere else, with road losses at Wichita State, Cincinnati and Temple, none of those representing quality opposition. Memphis has a couple of bad losses too, at East Carolina and UCF, but that win at Houston is a major bullet point, as is that 92-78 win over Alabama.
