On Thursday, we will see the start of the first round of the 2022 NCAA men’s basketball tournament, with 64 teams left to vie for the title. There is not a really dominant program in the sport this year – and no, we don’t see a one-loss run through the West Coast Conference as a sign that Gonzaga is a really dominant team – so we’re seeing a lot of variation even in Final Four picks from the experts. Duke? They couldn’t beat North Carolina at home in Coach K’s Cameron Indoor finale. They couldn’t beat seventh-seeded Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament final, and they did not lead at halftime in any of their ACC Tournament games. So I don’t see them making a deep run. What about the first round? Let’s look at some March Madness betting favorites you should pick.
NCAA News: First Round Favorites to Pick
#8 Boise State Broncos (+2) over #9 Memphis Tigers
This is an undesirable spot for both teams, because they get an opponent who is ostensibly similar in terms of level – and the reward for a win is a date with the 1-seed. Boise State (27-7, 15-3 Mountain West Conference) has a three-game winning streak going after running through the MWC Tournament, beating San Diego State by one in the tournament final. Memphis (21-10, 13-5 American Athletic Conference) had a couple of impressive wins against Houston in conference play but got taken to the woodshed by that same Houston team in the AAC Tournament final. Boise State started 3-4 but then went 21-3 the rest of the way. Memphis came in with freshman center Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates viewed as lottery picks, but they had a hard time making things cick for much of the season. They did close the regular season with 10 wins in 11 games, with the only loss coming at SMU, whom they did beat in the AAC Tournament semifinals. Boise State’s defense limited teams to 60.8 points per game, and Memphis turns the ball over a ton (16.2 times per game, fifth worst in the nation). If Boise State can put the clamps on Duren in the middle, then they can win this.
#7 Murray State Racers (+1.5) over #10 San Francisco Dons
Murray State (30-2, 18-0 Ohio Valley Conference) is the alma mater of Memphis Grizzlies star Ja Morant. They come in on a 20-game winning streak after beating Morehead State in the OVC Touranment championship. They play primarily a halfcourt offense without relying too heavily on the transition game, as they ranked 240th in the nation in possessions per game. They did average 79.3 points per game, 17th in the nation, so they made the most out of their possessions. They lost to Auburn by 13 in their only signature matchup of the season. San Francisco (24-9, 10-6 West Coast Conference) made it to the finals of the WCC Tournament, where they lost to Gonzaga. The placement of San Francisco in the tournament at all was an interesting decision given their low strength of schedule, but the selection committee is an enigma; a Texas A&M team that beat Arkansas and Auburn in the SEC Tournament and finished the regular season on a tear would make for a much more competitive team. Even so, the Dons are led by guard Jamaree Bouyea, who averages almost 17 points per game. Murray State is led by K.J. Williams, who puts up 18.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Tevin Brown is a solid second scorer. I don’t see Murray State making any sort of run, but I do see them getting by the Dons.
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