The Iowa Hawkeyes (21-9, 11-7 Big Ten) will take on the Michigan Wolverines (16-12, 10-8 Big Ten) on Thursday night. Michigan sits at #32 according to the NET rankings even though they have a poor record for a tournament candidate. Iowa sits at #18 in those rankings and will make the Big Dance, currently tied for fourth in the conference standings with Ohio State. Michigan is in a three-way tie for sixth with Rutgers and Michigan State. Iowa could draw a double-bye in the conference tournament, depending on how the last few days of the season go. Michigan beat Iowa on the road back on February 17, 84-79, behind Moussa Diabate’s 28 points and eight rebounds. Can Iowa get payback on the road? Don’t miss our College Basketball Odds for this thursday.
NCAAB Preview: #24 Iowa at Michigan (Thursday, March 3)
When: Thursday, March 3, 2022, 9:00 pm ET
Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV: FS1
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAB Odds: Michigan -1.5
Why should you bet on the Hawkeyes?
Iowa has won four in a row and seven of eight, with their lone setback coming at the hands of the Wolverines. On Monday, they took on Northwestern as 10 ½-point favorites and ended up rolling by 21. Keegan Murray put up 26 points and 18 rebounds in a dominant performance in what is likely his last home game; despite the fact that he is just a sophomore, he will probably go into the draft and be picked in the ottery. Jordan Bohannon sank four three-pointers on the way to 18 points, and the defense was also impressive, as Northwestern ony shot 38 percent and gave up 15 turnovers.
This Iowa team definitely follows the usual template – lots of tempo and quality shooting despite the lack of multiple stars. Their defense can be iffy, as they rank 78th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. However, they have a star in Murray, who averages 23.3 points, 8.6 boards, 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals per game, shooting 56.1% from the floor and 36.5% from behind the three-point arc. Iowa is 10th of 14 Big Ten teams in field goal defense, at 43.4% and slightly better in three point defense (33%, sixth). They are just ninth in rebounding margin, at 1.4, but they lead the conference in turnover margin (5.31) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.79).
Why should you put your money on the Wolverines?
Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson went nuts against Michigan State his last time out, putting up a career best 33 points, taking advantage of the Spartans’ decision to single-cover him, and he punctuated many of his baskets with talk toward the MSU bench. He went 13 of 19 from the floor and went 7 of 9 from the free-throw line, guiding Michigan to an 87-70 home win on Tuesday. Michigan shot 58% from the floor and won the rebounding battle by five.
Even if Michigan somehow gets into the NCAA tournament, the Wolverines have had a tough season. Juwan Howard is serving a five-game suspension for his role in a postgame fight after a loss to Wisconsin on February 20. Michigan is ranked #20 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and #29 according to KenPom. Dickinson is the team’s leading scorer with 18.3 points, and he pulls down 8.4 boards per game, blocking 1.4 shots per game while shooting 55.8%. Guard Eli Brooks chips in 11.9 points per game, shooting 44.1% overall and 38.8% from three-point distance. However, the Michigan guards rank 11th in the Big Ten in turnover margin (-1.71) and eighth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.21). Their field goal defense is 12th in the Big Ten, but their three-point defense is second (31.3%).
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Michigan did not look like their head coach was missing in their big win over Michigan State. The Wolverines also come in hungrier, as Iowa is already heading to March Madness, while Michigan can’t take any more losses. I predict a final score of Michigan 74, Iowa 62.
