The Houston Cougars are returning to national prominence as a basketball program after a few decades of toiling in mediocrity. Guy V. Lewis coached the team from 1956-1986 and took the team to the Final Four five times, most recently from 1982-1984, making the championship game in 1983 and 1984 with the Phi Slamma Jamma team led by Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. Their last-second loss to North Carolina State in the 1983 title game set a ratings record at the time for a college basketball telecast. In recent years, Kelvin Sampson has coached the Cougars back into national contention. They posted a 33-4 record in 2018-19 and went to the Sweet 16 for the first time in 35 years. They reached the #5 ranking during 2020-21 and made the Final Four for the first time since 1984, where they lost to Baylor. Last year, they went 29-5 and won the American Athletic Conference regular-season title and conference tournament. They went to the Elite Eight, where they fell to Villanova.
Can they go all the way this year? We’ll break things down as you consider your NCAA basketball betting for the tournament.
NCAA Basketball Betting: Can Houston Win the National Championship?
Houston Cougars Info | Updated NCAA Basketball Odds
29-2 overall and 17-1 in American Athletic play – 1st
Conference: American Athletic
Venue: Fertitta Center, Houston, Texas
Excellent Statistical Metrics
The Cougars have a 27-2 record this season and have a perfect record on the road. They are ranked #1 in the AP Top 25 and the USA Today Coaches’ Poll. Their NET ranking is tops in the nation, and they also are the best Division I team according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. The ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a metric that claims to measure a team’s strength for the purpose of predicting success going forward, and the BPI gives Houston a 33.7% chance to win the national championship. The next highest team, Tennessee, has a 15.5% chance, followed by Alabama (12.4%) and UCLA (8.4%). No other team is higher than 4%. Metrics don’t tell you everything, but they do tell you a lot.
The Final Four is in Houston this Year
Sometimes it just helps to be lucky, and this year, NRG Stadium in Houston will host the Final Four. According to BPI, Houston has a 58.9% chance of getting to the Final Four and a 45.7% chance of making it to the championship game. The Final Four has some similarities with the Super Bowl in terms of the number of seats that go to corporate sponsors, but playing in an NFL-sized stadium means that there is plenty of room for raucous Houston fans to crowd the arena. Of course, if Houston ends up facing Texas or Baylor in the Final Four or the championship game, that advantage could be negated.
But Who Has Houston Played?
The Cougars have a 12-1 record against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents this season. They did lose at home to Alabama in non-conference play, one of two Top 25 opponents that Houston faced this year. The Cougars did go to then-#2 Virginia and deliver a 69-61 win. Their only other loss this season came at home to Temple, 56-55, a night when the Cougars were just shooting poorly. Their defense clamped down on the Owls, but they just couldn’t get out of their own way on offense – and they still almost won. They avenged that loss by beating Temple up in Philadelphia, 81-65, just four games later, and they held off Memphis on the road to finish AAC play with just the one conference loss and a regular-season title.
Should Houston Get the Top Overall Seed?
The win at Virginia is a huge bullet point on the resume, even though Houston’s conference play is not as tough in the American as what Kansas faces in the Big 12 and what Alabama has faced in the SEC. Next year, Houston will be in the Big 12, so we’ll see how they size up with other elite teams in conference play. For now, it seems certain that Houston should get a 1-seed in one of the four regions, but I’m also fine with Kansas and Alabama getting the top overall seed instead. I think the BPI has Houston a bit overrated because of the gap in their competition between them and teams that have a few more losses, so I wouldn’t put a lot of money on Houston to win given the lack of value.
College Basketball Betting Odds
Love betting NCAA basketball? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date college basketball lines
