Don’t look now, but USF has turned their college basketball program around. Since going from the Big East to the American Athletic Conference in 2013, the Bulls had never had a winning record in conference play. Amir Abdur-Rahim came over from Kennesaw State, bringing a few contributors from their NCAA tournament team last year, and now the Bulls lead the whole conference with seven games to go. They have a nine-game winning streak going and have won 15 of 16 to post a 17-5 record (10-1 AAC). The only player in the top seven of the Bulls’ rotation who was on the team last year is sixth man Selton Miguel. Can the Bulls make a deep playoff run? The AAC isn’t as strong in basketball as it was before Houston and Cincinnati left for the Big 12, so we’ll see what happens. In the meantime, though, it’s exciting to be a Bull. Read on to see our thoughts about a Final Four and Elite Eight set of pairings as you consider your NCAAB betting for March Madness.
NCAA Men’s Basketball: 2024 March Madness Final Four Predictions | College Basketball Odds
What about the 1-seeds?
The most commonly named 1-seed projections are Houston (South), UConn (East), Arizona (West), and Purdue (Midwest). Will all of them make the Final Four? Since 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, that’s happened just once, back in 2008, when Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA and Memphis all advanced. Over that same time period, three 1-seeds have made it to the Final Four just five times.
Overall, since 1985, 60 1-seeds have made it to the Final Four, and 24 have won national championships. Thirty-two 2-seeds have made Final Fours, while five have won national championships. The lowest seed to advance to a Final Four is the 11-seed, and five of those have made it that close to the title. The lowest seed to win a national championship is an 8-seed. Interestingly, no 5-seed has ever won a title.
But what about this group of top seeds? UConn has gotten even better since Donovan Clingan got back from his foot injury. In seven games, they have limited six teams under one point per possession, including a night when the defense held Creighton to 48 points on January 17 and limited Xavier to 22 points in the first half 11 days later. Clingan was dominating the paint, which helped limit Xavier to just three made field goals inside the arc in 23 attempts with him in the game. He had a similar impact on Saturday, when Georgetown clanked 15 of 22 layups.
Purdue continues to dominate Big Ten play; they beat Indiana by at least 20 points in both of their conference meetings for the first time since 1933-34, and center Zach Edey added insult to injury by making the first three-pointer of his career. Will Big Ten play prepare Purdue for the Big Dance, though? Houston is 8-3 in the Big 12, perhaps the toughest basketball conference in the nation. They have also learned to win despite adversity, as we saw when they eked out a tough win against Cincinnati when things weren’t going their way. Arizona has the most consistency issues of the projected top 1-seeds; in their five losses, Kylan Boswell has averaged just 4.6 points per game and failed to score in two of them. He did score 16 against Utah in a road triple-overtime win and then added 15 more at Colorado.
Of the four 1-seeds, I see UConn and Houston getting to the Final Four. Purdue is also having a terrific season, but their conference slate may not be tough enough to prepare for them for the slog of March Madness. Arizona lacks some of the consistency that these other three teams have shown.
Odds to Win NCAA Tournament – Top 10
Purdue Boilermakers +720 | UConn Huskies +750 |
Houston Cougars +950 | Arizona Wildcats +1250 |
Tennessee Volunteers +1275 | North Carolina Tar Heels +1475 |
Auburn Tigers +1775 | Kansas Jayhawks +2000 |
Alabama Crimson Tide +2100 | Marquette Golden Eagles +2400 |
2024 Schedule for March Madness
Selection Sunday: Sunday, March 17
First Four: March 19-20
First round: March 21-22
Second round: March 23-24
Sweet 16: March 28-29
Elite Eight: March 30-31
Final Four: Saturday, April 6
NCAA championship game: Monday, April 8
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2023 Early March Madness Final Four Preview
March Madness Predictions: Early Final Four Preview After Week 9 of the 2023/24 Season
NCAAB Predictions: It’s been more than half a year since the Connecticut Huskies took the men’s college basketball championship, but thanks to the transfer portal and the departure of so many top players to the NBA draft, the sport looks much different. Now, it’s Duke who has the top roster in the nation in terms of pure talent. Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor, and Kyle Filipowski should all go in the first round of the 2024 NBA draft, and Mark Mitchell should go in the second. However, Kansas might have more depth, starting with Hunter Dickinson, a preseason All-American, and continuing with Kevin McCullar Jr and Dajuan Harris Jr. Along with K.J. Adams Jr, these last three deciding all to return to Kansas gives the Jayhawks the combination of depth and shared experience that make them a smart pick to make it to the Final Four. Who will be joining Kansas? We have some thoughts about the other contenders that you should consider as you plot out your NCAA Football betting strategy.
Duke has all kinds of talent, as we said. In addition to the four early draft picks we listed earlier, Jeremy Roach is the fifth projected starter, and he averaged 13.6 points per game. We don’t know how far coach Jon Scheyer can take the Blue Devils; last year, Tennessee brought the physicality and knocked out Duke in the second round. Can he guide them on a deep run this time around? There have been plenty of teams who have entered the Big Dance with beautiful rosters on paper, only to wash out in the early going. This season will teach us as much about Scheyer as a coach as it does about the Blue Devils’ roster.
Purdue brings back Zach Edey, who won the Wooden Award last year as the top player in men’s college basketball. He waited until the deadline to make his decision, but he did commit to go back and play for the Boilermakers again, and so they are the rightful favorite to win the Big Ten as all five starters will return from last year’s regular-season and conference tournament champs. The Boilermakers earned their 1-seed in the men’s tournament, but to make a deeper run, the team will need to get more out of Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith.
Michigan State has a diverse roster in terms of experience, explosiveness, depth and elite guard play. Malik Hall and Tyson Walker had an extra year of eligibility and decided to use it, and Jaden Akins and A.J. Hoggard also decided to stick around instead of heading to the NBA. The Spartans also got Coen Carr, Jeremy Fears, and Xavier Booker, all top-30 recruits. If they can split with Purdue, the Spartans are also an interesting pick in the Big Ten.
Connecticut lost Jordan Hawkins, Andre Jackson Jr, and Adama Sanogo from their national championship team. Donovan Clingan should be back for the season after rehabbing a foot injury, and Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban are the two returning starters. Stephon Castle is just the best recruit in a class that ranks in the top five in the nation, and Cam Spencer transferred in from Rutgers and will bring sharpshooting ability.
Houston will either be exposed this year or will validate the national attention that has been lavished on them in recent years, as this is their first year in the Big 12. Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark moved on, but Damian Dunn and L.J. Cryer have transferred in to take their spots, and J’Wan Roberts and Jamal Shead, who scored in double figures per game last year, both return to the starting lineup. The team needs Terrance Arceneaux or Emanuel Sharp to develop into a reliable scorer from the wing, so that the Cougars won’t have to rely on their defense and rebounding to bail them out.
NCAAB Predictions of the 2023 Final Four
Kansas, Michigan State, Connecticut, Purdue
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