We’re just a few weeks away from the 2022 edition of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament – which means that one of the most popular sports betting events of the year is coming up. For a lot of people who take part in bracket wagering, you read about people winning office pools after picking teams by uniform color or team mascot, but that is really the exception to the rule. Let’s take a look at some tips you can use when filling out your bracket this time around to consider, as you plan your 2022 March Madness betting strategy.
How to Bet on March Madness
Underdogs often beat the spread
Sure, you’ll read about a top seed running a 16-seed out of the gym by 40 points now and then. However, for underdogs, the opportunity to appear in this tournament is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take on a top team in the nation, and more often than not, they take advantage of that opportunity. Blue bloods in the sport fall every year on the first weekend of the tournament, and even when those blue bloods survive, they often fail to cover fairly large spreads. This is especially true when you see matchups between 5 and 12 seeds and 4 and 13 seeds, where the seeding committee predictably overrates teams from Power 5 conferences, leaving them against strong mid-majors – and the sports betting community fails to note the imbalance.
Don’t overlook these two statistics
Shooting percentage allowed and shooting percentage are two important statistics when it comes to covering spreads and advancing. Teams that can shut down opposing offenses won’t depend on playing in particular arenas to smother their opponents, and teams who have solid shooting percentages have built those numbers in difficult road environments and neutral arenas in addition to their home floors, so watch those numbers. Last year, Gonzaga had the best field goal percentage in the nation and made the national championship game.
Should you always pick the 12-seed over the 5-seed?
On average, one 12-seed upsets one 5-seed each year. That means that three 5-seeds advance. So if you pick all four upsets, you will lose. Instead, take the time to do the research it takes to figure out which 12-seed you should pick to knock off an overrated Power 5 team that should, in all probability, be an 8-seed or a 9-seed.
The blue bloods advance because they are the blue bloods
The upsets make the headlines, but most of your big-name programs will advance a round or two. We saw this last year, when UCLA started as an 11-seed play-in and rolled all the way to the tournament’s last weekend. This is why you never see as many surprises as you might think when you get to the Sweet 16, at least not in typical years. Oh, and yes, a 1-seed has fallen to a 16-seed in the past. But it’s happened exactly one time. Are you going to be the person who picks that happening a second time correctly? It’s doubtful.
Teams from tough conferences are more likely to push deep into the tournament
Yes, Gonzaga is the top-ranked team in the nation. They play terrific defense. Their offense is transcendent. However, until the Bulldogs win a title, I will hold to my claim that the lack of a rigorous conference schedule hurts them every March. The West Coast Conference might send four teams to the tournament this year, but there are a ton of bottom-feeders in that league as well, and Gonzaga is not as prepared as teams from leagues like the ACC, the Big East, or the Big Ten. Even the SEC and the Pac-12, at least for now, have a lot of iffy teams on the schedule when it comes to preparing teams for the rigors of six straight tournament wins.
College Basketball Betting Odds
Love betting NCAA basketball? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date college basketball lines
