The Illinois Fighting Illini won the Big Ten Tournament and were rewarded with a 3-seed in the tournament. They got to open with Morehead State and benefited from Duquesne taking down BYU in that upset-filled first round. Now they get their first real test of March Madness – a date with 2-seed Iowa State. The Cyclones have a five-game winning streak going, including wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Houston. That win over Houston came in the Big 12 Tournament final and saw the Cyclone rout the then-#1 team in the nation by 28. Iowa State opened as a 2 ½-point favorite, but that line has slid down a point. Illinois vs Iowa State, which team should you take? Don’t lock in your NCAAB betting on this until you check out our thoughts.
NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament Preview East Region, Sweet 16 Illinois vs Iowa State
When: Thursday, March 28, 2024
Where: TD Garden, Boston, 7:39 pm ET
TV: TBS
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: fuboTV
NCAAB Odds: Illinois +1.5 / O/U 145.5 // Illinois +106 / Iowa State -128
Why should you bet on the Illinois Fighting Illini?
Illinois has produced against elite defenses this season. Rutgers had the fourth-toughest defense in the nation, according to KenPom, and Illinois scored 76 and 86 points in their two meetings. Michigan State’s defense ranked eighth in KenPom – and Illinois scored 71 and 80 points in their two meetings. So the Illini know how to deal with tough defensive units. Their offense is the real deal; in their last 16 games, they’ve scored at least 85 points 13 times. They’ve hit 90 seven times, and they dropped 105 on Minnesota.
What about Iowa State? They haven’t scored 85 or more points since December 31, when they played unheralded New Hampshire. They have only scored 80 or more points once in that stretch, when they beat Texas Tech, 82-74. They’ve played teams with a wide range of defensive efficiency, but their own offense hasn’t taken off. They do play at a slower pace than Illinois, but if the Illini can ramp up the speed, they should be able to pull away.
Illinois Odds to Win Today
Why should you put your money on the Iowa State Cyclones?
Iowa State has the second-ranked defense in the nation. They held the Houston offense, which is ranked 15th in the nation, to 41 points. They play elite defense on the perimeter, and they hit clutch shots when they need them. Washington State made things interesting early in the second half of their round-of-32 matchup, but the Cyclones pulled away. Iowa State forced 13 turnovers and converted almost all of them into points.
The Iowa State pace is slower than Illinois’ but the team is efficient. Their pressure on the perimeter makes other teams play error-free ball. The Illini like to keep things moving, and they push defensive rebounds into the transition games. The problem for Illinois is that they don’t force a lot of turnovers, and their defense isn’t always locked in. When they do suffer mistakes, it usually has to do with a defensive lapse, which the Cyclones are always primed to exploit.
Iowa State Odds to Win Today
Illinois vs Iowa State Final Score and Prediction
Illinois can deal with a halfcourt game, and they have the size to impose their will on a slower game. When they hold opponents below 71 points, they are 15-0. Iowa State is unbeaten when they score at least 72 points. The Illini are elite rebounders, getting 29 or more boards in all but three games. One of those came against Florida Atlantic in a 98-89 track meet that saw both teams shooting lights out (and generating fewer rebounds as a result). The other two times came against Purdue, which is second in the nation on the boards thanks to Zach Edey. Illinois’ size could be enough, but I’m not sure that their defense can stop that clutch Iowa State offense. Cyclones to win and cover.
Current Odds to win NCAA Basketball Championship for Top 10 Teams
- UConn Huskies +220
- Houston Cougars +525
- Purdue Boilermakers +600
- Arizona Wildcats +850
- Tennessee Volunteers +1200
- North Carolina Tar Heels +1200
- Marquette Golden Eagles +1600
- Iowa State Cyclones +1900
- Gonzaga Bulldogs +2500
- Duke Blue Devils +2500
- Creighton Bluejays +2500
- Illinois Fighting Illini +3000
- Alabama Crimson Tide +3500
- San Diego State Aztecs +7000
- Clemson Tigers +8500
- NC State Wolfpack +10000
2024 March Madness Schedule
| Round | City | Venue | Dates | Host |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Regional | Boston | TD Garden | March 28 – 30 | Boston College |
| South Regional | Dallas | American Airlines Center | March 29 -31 | Big 12 Conference |
| Midwest Regional | Detroit | Little Caesars Arena | March 29 – 31 | University of Detroit Mercy / Oakland University |
| West Regional | Los Angeles | Crypto.com Arena | March 28 – 30 | Pepperdine University |
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