The Quakers of the University of Pennsylvania took down Harvard in the finals of the Ivy League Tournament to earn the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, posting a 24-8 record on the season. Their reward is a 16-seed and a date against the top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks, in an arena that is just down the road from Kansas’ campus. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 regular season title for the 14th consecutive year and took down West Virginia in the championship of the Big 12 Tournament. Check out our March Madness betting preview of this opening-round contest.
Kansas vs. Penn March Madness Betting Pick for 2018 First Round
When: Thursday, March 15, 2018, 2:00pm ETWhere: Charles Koch Arena, Wichita, KSTV: TBSRadio: NoneLive Stream: March Madness LiveMarch Madness Betting Odds: Kansas -16
Why should you bet on the Jayhawks?
Given how tough Big 12 play was this year, it was surprising how easy Kansas’ path through the tournament was, as they won their three games by an average of 13.7 points. They rolled to an 81-70 win over West Virginia behind 20 points (including six three-pointers) from Malk Newman, who would win the Big 12 Tournament MVP trophy. Devonte Graham added 18 points and 13 assists, and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk added 16 points. Kansas looked dominant down the stretch this season, winning eight of their last nine, and they ranked #6 in the nation in offensive efficiency, scoring 120.9 points per 100 possession. They permitted just 97.7 points per 100 possession, ranking 46th overall. They live by the three-pointer, taking almost 42 percent of their shots from downtown — and making 40.3% of them, 11th in the nation.
Kansas has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against an opponent with a winning percentage higher than .600 and in four of their last five games coming after a game in which they also covered the spread.
Why should you put your money on the Quakers?
Penn had all they wanted from Harvard in the finals of the Ivy League tournament, winning 68-65. The Quakers got 19 points from Darnell Foreman, 17 from Ryan Bentley, and 16 points and 10 boards from A.J. Brodeur. Penn had built up a lead as big as 13 in the second half before the Crimson put together a big rally. In offensive efficiency, Penn scored 103.6 points per 100 possessions in the regular season, ranked just 205th in the nation. They did better on defense, ranking 73rd and permitting 99.9 points per 100 possession. Their nonconference schedule was not particularly tough, but they did take down Dayton and Monmouth. What Penn has done well is taking care of the ball — their turnover percentage was just 16.0, and they led the Ivy League in effective field goal percentage (55.1). Opponents make just 27.2% of their shots from downtown, thanks to effective perimeter defense.
Penn has covered the spread just once in their last five games against Big 12 opponents, and just once in their last six games in the NCAA tournament. It’s true that the Penn defense is solid against three-point shooters, so they could disrupt Kansas to some degree, but it’s hard to see them making enough of a dent to counteract the advantage that the Jayhawks have inside.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
If Kansas didn’t have Silvio de Sousa and A.J. Brodeur inside, this game could be a scary one. However, Kansas has quicker guards on the perimeter and bigger, stronger bodies in the paint, so they should be able to dismantle Penn from outside and in the lane on offense, and they should also be able to limit the number of open looks that Penn can get. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a close first half, but I like Kansas to win and cover, with a final score of 84-62.
