The NCAA men’s basketball tournament later this month will be one of the most intriguing in recent years, in large part because of the number of usual suspects who either could miss the bracket altogether or end up sliding in at the last minute — potentially dangerous, but unworthy of favorite status. Gonzaga has advanced to the West Coast Conference tournament final, where they will face BYU for a chance to finish their first unbeaten regular season in school history. Baylor has struggled a bit since returning from an extended COVID-19 layoff but should still be a 1-seed. After that, it gets interesting, as Michigan lost to Michigan State on Sunday, Villanova has scuffled a bit and Houston still has not played many impressive teams. Illinois is emerging as a possible 1-seed, but Selection Sunday will hold more drama than usual as the bracket fills.
As you consider your college basketball betting strategy for the tournament, we have a list of potential longshots who could post big surprises in the first round — if they can get in at all.
NCAA News: Longshots to Watch in the First Round
Duke should miss the NCAA tournament. There are seven teams from the ACC who are likely to get in, but Duke is not among them. The only way the Blue Devils make it in is by running the table in the ACC Tournament, and they have already beaten Virginia once this season. Is this a realistic outcome? Actually, it is. There is no team in the ACC Tournament that is also in the AP Top 10. The last time that happened was 1996, and this is just the fifth time that has ever happened. Duke does limp in on a three-game losing streak, but the ACC is ripe for that sort of run. And if they can make that sort of run, they’ll have all kinds of momentum as an unlikely Cinderella in that first round.
Syracuse is another ACC team that is projected to miss the Big Dance. However, despite sitting eighth in the conference, they enter the ACC Tournament on a two-game winning streak, taking down North Carolina (expected to make the NCAA Tournament) and Clemson (also expected to make it in). They have also beaten Virginia Tech, a team that has gone through a lengthy COVID-19 shutdown but is still projected to be in the Big Dance. Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone still frustrates opposing offenses, and he has had the shooters to pull out wins. Of course, the Orange also got shellacked when they played at Clemson, at Virginia and at Duke, and they also lost at Georgia Tech. But this is another team that could make a run through that bracket and then stare down an opponent in the first round.
SMU comes out of the AAC and has not played since February 8 due to an extended COVID-19 health and safety situation. They will take the floor on March 12 against Cincinnati holding the fourth seed in the AAC tournament. The team has a high ceiling, led by point guard Kendric Davis, one of the top scorers in the conference. They have beaten Memphis, who some have picked to win the AAC Tournament. They have gotten beaten badly by Houston twice, and they lost at home to Cincinnati back in early January. However, the way Davis leads the offense, and the way SMU shoots the ball when they’re on, could make a difference. Also, the AAC Tournament is just 30 minutes away from SMU’s campus, so while the tournament is not in their arena, they have the ability to spend the night in their own beds, which can also make a difference. The momentum of making it through the AAC Tournament, should SMU’s offense be able to overcome the subpar coaching of Tim Jankovich, could easily spur them to a first-round upset in the Big Dance as well.
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