March Madness Betting Predictions: Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four

The UConn Huskies are the overall top seed in the March Madness tournament, and they get a geographically friendly start to their national championship defense with their first games set for Brooklyn. However, their East Region bracket is full of potential traps. Assuming they get by 16-seed Stetson, they have the possibility of a tough Florida Atlantic team, somehow seeded 8th, waiting for them. The 2-seed in the East is Iowa State, who just obliterated another 1-seed, Houston, by 28 in the Big 12 Tournament finals. Let’s break down some key factors in this region as you plot your NCAAB betting strategy.

2024 March Madness East Region Betting Predictions | College Basketball Odds

Tough Top Seeds

In addition to UConn being the only top-seven team to win its conference tournament, Iowa State may well have been deserving of a top seed. None of the other 1-seeds (Purdue, Houston, North Carolina) won its conference tournament. North Carolina has a couple of lesser contenders as its 2-seed and 3-seed (Arizona and Baylor). Creighton got the 3-seed in the Midwest Region. Kentucky has the three-seed in the South. So the reward that UConn received for winning its conference tournament when the other top teams faltered was the toughest bracket.

Check out #7 Washington State vs #10 Drake

This is one of the later games on Thursday’s first-round slate. Kyle Smith has the Washington State Cougars in the Big Dance for the first time since 2008. They finished in second place in the Pac-12, going 14-6 in conference play. While that record might not seem that impressive given the top-to-bottom inconsistency in quality, two of those 14 wins came over Arizona, who somehow got a 2-seed.

Will Drake (the Missouri Valley Conference champs) reveal the Pac-12 for what it well may be – an overrated basketball league? Drake is a one-possession underdog in this matchup, and they almost knocked off the Miami Hurricanes in the first round last year. They were up by six with just five minutes left in regulation, but Miami went on a 16-1 run and won by seven. Tucker DeVries, Drake’s leading scorer, only had three points in that game and bricked 12 of his 13 shot attempts. If he can get things going, Drake should be able to get by the Cougars. Drake to cover.

Which team is the Cinderella?

Duquesne is the 11-seed in the East and emerged from the wreckage known as the Atlantic 10 tournament, riding their sixth seed all the way to the finals, where they beat 5-seed VCU, 57-51 (in case you’re wondering, yes, there was a shot clock in that game). They slow the game down, which is how so many mid-majors try to overcome the speed deficits they face against power conference opponents. Their first game comes against BYU, a team that relies on a quick tempo and jacks up lots of three-balls. If a slower pace damages BYU’s rhythm, that could lead to an upset.

Then, the Dukes would likely see Alabama in the second round. The Crimson Tide play at an even faster pace than BYU does, and they also rely on the three-ball. Either BYU or Alabama could get hot from outside and bury the Dukes. However, if the Dukes can control the pace and frustrate both of these teams, we could see the controlled pace of the Dukes make it to the second weekend.

Why Iowa State Will Win the East

The Cyclones can play shutdown defense. It’s an old-school focus, but it’s one that still works, especially in the college game. However, this 27-win team wouldn’t be where it is without Tamin Lipsey. He started all 33 games as a freshman this year and made First Team All-Big 12. He distributes and scores – and he’s the best perimeter defender. The Cyclones start with South Dakota State and then likely face the Washington State-Drake winner. After that, they might have to beat Illinois, the Big Ten Tournament champs, to get to the Elite Eight. That’s a gauntlet that would more than prepare them for UConn, and if you don’t think their defense can shut down the best teams, go look at the tape of them holding Houston to 41 points.

Is Temple basketball back under the magnifying glass of the bodies that regulate sports betting? U.S. Integrity, a gambling watchdog outfit, broadcast an alert on Thursday to casinos about anomalous betting activity on the game between Temple and UAB. One casino saw the line move from UAB -1.5 to UAB -8 on the day of the game before dropping to UAB -7 near tipoff. The Blazers dismantled Temple, 100-72, on the road. That was the Owls’ second straight loss – and the second straight game in which the Owls did not even come near covering their end of the spread. They took on Tulsa at home on Saturday as 5 ½-point favorites but lost by five. Tulsa started the game on a 16-2 run and never looked back. The Owls (11-19, 4-14 AAC) have been on U.S. Integrity’s radar for some time now. As we head into the high-volume wagering season of March Madness, let’s look at some NCAAB betting trends you’ll need to keep in mind.

NCAA Men’s Basketball: 2024 Important March Madness Betting Trends | College Basketball Odds

NCAAB: Only two 1-seeds have ever lost to a 16-seed, but…

Those two upsets have come since 2018. Back then it was Virginia falling to Maryland-Baltimore County, and last year it was Purdue falling to Fairleigh Dickinson. Before 2018, only two 16-seeds had ever come within a basket of knocking off the top seed. Pete Carrill’s Princeton Tigers used their grinding pace and backdoor-cut passing game to sneak within a point of beatin Georgetown (50-49), and East Tennessee State almost knocked off Oklahoma (72-71). So a 1-seed is still virtually a lock to win.

NCAAB: 1-seeds cover when the spreads are reasonable

A 20-point spread is sizable in basketball, particularly when you’re dealing with the national tournament. The mid-majors head to the tournament with visions of knocking off the titans of the sport, while the top teams face pressure, particularly in that opening round. A cold-shooting opening to the game can make covering a 20-point spread less than reasonable, and even your 16-seeds have figured out how to play the game well enough to win their own conference. When the spread is under 20, the last five seasons have produced a cover rate for the 1-seeds in the first round at just under 80%. Yes, that includes those two straight-up losses in 2018 and 2023.

NCAAB: 1-seeds make the Sweet 16 about 86 percent of the time

The next round pits the 1-seed against the winner between the 8-seed and the 9-seed. Hypothetically, this would be the lowest-ranked team remaining in the bracket if the favorites take care of business. Between 1985 and 2023, 1-seeds went 126-21 (an 85.7% win rate) in the second round. That’s a lot better than 2-seeds (93-45) have done in the second round.

NCAAB: The 7-10 matchup isn’t as close as you think

The NCAA tournament has a reputation for upsets, adn a well-deserved one. So you might think that the 7-10 matchup is a coin-flip. The 10-seeds are often the Power 5 teams that were in the middle of their conference standings, while the 7-seeds are often the mid-major champions. The grueling nature of the Power 5 schedule often prepares those teams for a deeper run in the national tournament. Between 1985 and 2023, the 7-seeds won 60.8% of the 7-10 matchups. With that said…

NCAAB: 10-seeds do well getting to the Sweet 16

If the 10-seed can get by the 7-seed, they have a 42.9% win rate in the Round of 32 (25-34 between 1985 and 2023). So if you back a 10-seed, consider backing it all the way through the first weekend. Look at that team’s record down the stretch – the last couple weeks of the regular season as well as their conference tournament. If they’re hot, they could zip through those first two games and make the second weekend.

NCAAB: Don’t overlook the First Four

Those eight teams that play in Dayton, for some reason, a few days ahead of the official first round of the NCAA tournament, often end up doing more damage than you might expect in the “real” bracket. Between 2011, when the First Four first appeared, and 2019, at least one of the teams that advanced from that play-in and then had to travel on a day’s notice somewhere else in the nation (instead of already starting in the arena where they would play a few days later). In 2021, UCLA started out in the First Four…and rolled all the way to the Final Four, where it took a buzzer-beater from Gonzaga to end their season. Notre Dame stopped 6-seed Alabama as an 11-seed after escaping Rutgers in double overtime in the First Four.

NCAAB: What about the 9-seeds?

The 9-seeds have stopped the 8-seeds in the first round 76 times (and failed 72 times) between 1985 and 2023. The position of the selection committee is that they view the eight 8- and 9-seeds as virtual equals. So when you look at the Round of 32, a strange number emerges. Eight-seeds who win in the first round have a 15-56 record (21.1% win rate) between 1985 and 2023, while 9-seeds only win 9.2% of the time (7-69).

NCAAB: Follow the underdog, not the seed in 8-9 matchups

The underdog has covered in 30 of the last 52 matchups between 8- and 9-seeds in March Madness. Since the committee is basically flipping a coin with the seeding, it makes sense that the sports betting community might be overvaluing the top seed – or the historical track record of the favorite program.

NCAAB: The 11-seed is where it’s at

Between 2011 and 2023, the 11-seed has a 25-23 record against the 6-seed. The 2017 tournament saw the University of Rhode Island, USC and Xavier all advance as 11-seeds. Xavier rode that momentum all the way to the Elite Eight that year. In 2019, Syracuse and Loyola-Chicago made it multiple rounds into the tournament as 11-seeds. The 2022 tournament saw Iowa State, Michigan and Notre Dame all win as 11-seeds. Iowa State and Michigan made it to the Sweet 16.

NCAAB: The fun stops at the 12-seed

We spend a lot of time hearing about the parity in college basketball, and it’s interesting that 12-seeds (53-95 between 1985 and 2023, 36.8% win rate) are about as good as 11-seeds (57-91, 39.5%) in the opening round. The 13-seeds, though, are just 31-117 in the first round, a 21.5% win rate. So teams like 15-seed Saint Peter’s, who rode all the way to the Elite Eight in 2022, are fun to remember – but are sports betting rarities.

NCAAB: Historical oddities

Boise State (0-8), Eastern Kentucky (0-8), Belmont (0-8), and Nebraska (0-7) have never won a March Madness game – a combined 0-31. But then there’s Gonzaga, with a perfect 13-0 record in the first round since 2009.

NCAAB: Adjusted defensive efficiency and the Final Four

This statistic was the brainchild of Ken Pomeroy and measures the points allowed per 100 possessions multiplied by the national average defensive efficiency divided by a team’s opponents’ offensive efficiency. Got all that?

Since the 2012 tournament, just three Final Four teams have not been found on KenPom’s Top 40 in adjusted deficiency: Kansas (47th) in 2018, UCLA (46th) in 2021, and Duke (49th) in 2022. Of the 40 national semifinal teams in that stretch, 17 cracked the top ten in that metric. Nine cracked the top 3. So remember adjusted defensive efficiency when you’re looking at your bracket.

Bet NCAA Basketball Lines: Teams in the Big Dance for the 2024 Tournament

We’re just a few weeks away from one of the biggest sports betting events in the United States: the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament, known as March Madness for the ups and downs that the 68 teams have to endure to have a shot at a national title. It seems like every year brings us a new Cinderella team or two – a team that makes it several rounds into the tournament despite a low seed and a modest regular-season performance bailed out by a hot run and a conference tournament title. Let’s look at some teams that are certain to make the Big Dance – and whom we expect to make deep runs.

UConn Huskies (22-2, 12-1 Big East)

NET Ranking: 4
KenPom Ranking: 3

The Huskies have won 12 games in a row, and their next game comes against lowly DePaul. But can UConn make it 14 wins in a row when they play Marquette on Saturday? For now, this looks like a 1-seed.

Houston Cougars (21-3, 8-3 Big 12)

NET Ranking: 1
KenPom Ranking: 1

After a bumpy start to Big 12 play, the Cougars are near the top of the conference standings. They have a 7-3 record in Quad 1 games and have home games against Iowa State and Texas coming up – opportunities to build their 1-seed case even further.

Purdue Boilermakers (21-2, 10-2 Big Ten)

NET Ranking: 2
KenPom Ranking: 2

Purdue has an 8-2 record against Quad 1 opponents and has an eight-game winning streak going overall. The Big Ten doesn’t seem to be as challenging a conference as it has been in years past, with Michigan and Michigan State somewhat down, but Purdue has set itself apart as a 1-seed candidate.

Arizona Wildcats (19-5, 10-3 Pac-12)

NET Ranking: 3
KenPom Ranking: 4

In the middle of a three-game homestand, the Wildcats have a chance to put a hammerlock on the Pac-12 in its last season. Based on how things shake out down the stretch, Arizona is looking like a 1- or a 2-seed.

North Carolina Tar Heels (19-5, 11-2 ACC)

NET Ranking: 10
KenPom Ranking: 8

The Tar Heels play four of six at home before finishing their regular season against Duke. If they can stay on a roll, they could be the fourth 1-seed, pushing Arizona to a 2-seed.

Tennessee Volunteers (17-6, 8-3 SEC)

NET Ranking: 6
KenPom Ranking: 7

The Vols were on course for a possible 1-seed until they lost to Texas A&M by 16. Their next games against ranked competition come against Auburn (February 28) and Alabama (March 2), so they have a chance to build a nice winning streak.

Marquette Golden Eagles (18-5, 9-3 Big East)

NET Ranking: 11
KenPom Ranking: 10

The Golden Eagles have just a 5-3 record against Quad 1 competition, which is why most bracketologists don’t have them in line for a 1-seed. However, they do face UConn on Saturday, and if they can stop the Huskies, they might have an argument to jump to a top line.

Iowa State Cyclones (18-5, 7-3 Big 12)

NET Ranking: 9
KenPom Ranking: 9

In Quad 1 games, the Cyclones are just 4-4. They only have one loss to a team outside Quad 1, though. Their defense is stifling, but their offense can lack consistency at times against other elite defenses. Can they hang on for a 2-seed?

Kansas Jayhawks (18-5, 6-4 Big 12)

NET Ranking: 12
KenPom Ranking: 13

Going to Texas Tech on Monday and getting steamrolled by 29 was far from ideal. Going into Saturday’s showdown with Oklahoma, the Jayhawks have dropped two of three and are in real danger of falling too far behind the rest of the Big 12 to come back and take a regular-season title.

Alabama Crimson Tide (17-7, 9-2 SEC)

NET Ranking: 5
KenPom Ranking: 6

The only real blemish on Alabama’s record is a 91-71 beating at the hands of Tennessee on January 20. Could the Tide rise up as high as a 2-seed with a strong finish to the regular season and a deep SEC Tournament run? Definitely.