When the N.C. State Wolfpack won the ACC Tournament and swiped the conference’s automatic slot in March Madness, their opening odds to win the whole thing were +20000. Now that we’re down to the Final Four, the sports betting books aren’t laughing, because the bettors that took the Wolfpack could make off with huge paydays if D.J. Burns & Company can pull off two more upsets. However, they aren’t the biggest underdog to make the Final Four by any means. In 2011, Butler rolled to the Final Four despite entering the tournament with identical +20000 odds. However, in 2016, Syracuse entered as a 10-seed and had +27500 odds to win the national championship. They rolled to the Final Four as well. The title for biggest underdog since 2010 to get to the Final Four, though, belongs to Loyola-Chicago, who rode the prayers of Sister Jean (and a good deal of basketball talent) to the Final Four in 2018 despite entering the tournament with +38000 odds to win the title. Going into this Final Four, we have Alabama (+11.5) and N.C. State (+9.5) as sizable underdogs. Should you bet on either one? Should you take both? Read on to get our thoughts.
2024 March Madness Underdogs Worth Betting On
Should you wager on N.C. State to win or cover?
The Wolfpack have a nine-game winning streak going that started in the ACC Tournament. They finished their regular season with four straight losses: at Florida State, at North Carolina, at home to Duke, and at Pitt. Then came the conference tournament, and the wins started piling up: Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina in succession. Then they entered March Madness and took down Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette, and Duke. Which of these games, you might wonder, was the biggest scare for the Wolfpack? Their win over 14-seed Oakland, of course – a game that went to overtime.
N.C. State has the South Region’s Most Outstanding Player in D.J. Burns Jr, who showed up big in the biggest game, scoring a season-best 29 points in the regional final win over Duke. At halftime, Duke led by six, so N.C. State just came out and shot 73% in the second half, winning the last 20 minutes by 18 points. On the night, the Blue Devils only managed 32% shooting, so we saw that the Wolfpack defense can clamp down.
Most Cinderellas see their dances come to an end in the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight. Hot-shooting players regress to the mean, and opposing coaches find the holes in the upstarts’ offensive or defensive schemes. For the season, though, N.C. State posted a 9-6 record against teams that qualified for the NCAA Tournament. This, of course, may be a sign that the ACC got too much representation in the bracket, but that’s a topic for a different article. In these four March Madness games, N.C. State is scoring 75.5 points per game, shooting 47% overall an dmaking 34% of their three-point shots. They are dropping seven buckets from distance per game.
But what about their defense? They have led their opponents to just 65.5 points per contest in March Madness, limiting them to 35% overall shooting. No team has made 40% of their shots against the Wolfpack in this tournament. From three-point land, the Wolfpack is holding opponents to 24% combined shooting. They are pulling down 40 boards per game. The paint is yielding 36 points per game for N.C. State, thank in large part by Burns.
But can they stop Purdue? Zach Edey comes into this game on the momentum of a 40-point effort in the Boilermakers’ Elite Eight win over Tennessee. Getting the win might be a tall order, but it isn’t nearly as hard to see the Wolfpack making this a close game from start to finish. With that ironclad defense and that tough play inside, N.C. State won’t be easy pickings for Edey and the rest of the Purdue offense.
March Madness Pick: N.C. State to cover
Should you take Alabama to cover?
Alabama has players who can make shots from all five positions, and that’s a versatility that UConn has yet to see this season. They can drop 15 or more three-balls per game, and those add up in a hurry, both in terms of scoring and momentum. Stephon Castle has already managed to limit Boo Buie and Terrence Shannon Jr – remember that UConn went on a 30-0 run against Illinois in that Elite Eight laugher – and Castle could put the same sort of clamps on Sears. Alabama does love to run and gun, but UConn could exploit that desire to turn the game into a track meet and go in a video-game style scoring march of their own.
Running out of a five-out look will force UConn to make some tough decisions on defense. The Tide shoots as many three-balls as does Creighton, but Alabama likes to run faster. Even if the Crimson Tide come out misfiring, they will keep shooting. They’ve shot 41.4% from downtown in this tournament, so they have plenty of reason for confidence. I’m not concerned about Alabama’s ability to score points, but I am concerned about the chances they have to mount any sort of defensive effort.
Remember that Alabama scores over 90 points per game, but since February 7, the Tide have played 14 games, and they have allowed 90.4 points per game over that stretch, which started with a 99-81 win over Auburn. If UConn can get to 90 on Alabama, this game could be ugly. The Huskies have lost three games this year: to Kansas, Seton Hall, and Creighton. In all there of those games, the pace was slower, and the most possessions that the Huskies had in any of those games was 62 (against Seton Hall). Pushing that number up to 70 happened in almost all of the Huskies’ other games, and the Huskies won them all. The lesson should be that speeding the game up is not a solution that is likely to work.
The line on this game is UConn -11.5, which is an immense spread for a Final Four game. However, the Huskies’ smallest margin of victory so far in this tournament has been bigger than that, and it came against Northwestern, which plays more of a slow, grinding style. The Crimson Tide just doesn’t play much defense at all, thinking that they can outscore the opposition over the course of a whole game. Illinois thought this approach would work, and we saw that horrendous run that ended their season. I don’t think Alabama will give up that kind of run, though, and I think they have the three-point barrage capacity to keep things close enough.
March Madness Pick: Alabama to cover
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2024 March Madness Early Underdogs
With March Madness Selection Sunday just under two months away, it’s time to start thinking about how to plan your College Basketball betting for the signature event in men’s college basketball. Taking favorites, such as Kansas, Duke and North Carolina, is ultimately a losing strategy because of the low value you get – and the fact that Cinderella teams come out of nowhere just about every season, with at least one of them often getting as far as the Final Four. We saw San Diego State and Florida Atlantic shock the nation last year – so who can you ride a long way against the odds this year? Here are some teams to consider backing.
2024 March Madness Dark Horses to Consider | College Basketball Odds
March Madness Underdog: Clemson Tigers
No, this isn’t a college football article. Instead, the Tigers have remained in the AP Top 25 for much of the early season. They went 23-11 in 2022-23 and were one of five ACC teams to make the Big Dance. However, their season included an ugly 10-point loss to a dreadful Louisville team – and an upset loss in the first round of March Madness to Morehead State. The Tigers got P.J. Hall back this year, after he withdrew from the NBA draft. His shooting percentage is considerably higher this year, and he is still a beast in the paint in terms of strength and physicality. Fifth-year seniors Chase Hunter and Alex Hemenway add their veteran expertise, and sharpshooter Joe Girard, a Syracuse transfer, leads the team in scoring. Bas Leyte (UNC-Greensboro) and Jack Clark (N.C. State) transferred in and occupy key role player slots. If the Tigers can continue their early confident play against ACC competition, this is a team that could push deep in March.
March Madness Underdog: Ole Miss Rebels
Chris Beard has surfaced in Oxford, as his domestic violence charge went away in February 2023, and so Ole Miss plucked him out of the discard pile. Beard had led Texas Tech to the championship game before heading to Texas and running into a major scandal. The transfer portal brought in Jamarion Sharpe, who alters shots at 7’5”, from Western Kentucky. Other transfers included Brandon Murray (LSU / Georgetown), Allen Flanigan (Auburn), Jaylen Murray (Saint Peter’s), Moussa Cisse (Memphis / Oklahoma State), and Austin Nunez (Arizona State). Last year’s leading scorer, Matthew Murrell, withdrew from the draft for another year with the Rebels. With a record of 15-1 (2-1 SEC), the Rebels look like a dangerous Match team.
March Madness Underdog: New Mexico Lobos
Richard Pitino, perhaps best known for leading Minnesota to an NIT title (and for being the son of coaching legend Rick Pitino), has the Lobos racing out to a 14-3 record – but just a 2-2 mark in MWC play. This is similar to last year, when the Lobos started the season 14-0 and climbed to #18 in the AP Top 25. They ended up missing the NCAA tournament but got a two-seed in the NIT. This time around, they retained what should be the top backcourt in the MWC in Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. Last year, both guards played over 30 minutes per game and averaged over 16 points per contest. Jemarl Baker (Kentucky / Arizona / Fresno State) transferred in, as did Nelly Joseph (Iona) and Mustapha Amzil (Dayton). Joseph was First-Team All-MAAC last year. If the Lobos can find their way to contend in the MWC and approach 25 wins, this is another interesting March team thanks to their guard play.
March Madness Underdog: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons have rolled out to a 4-1 start in ACC play and sit at 12-4 fir the season. Steve Forbes has made a habit of recruiting elite guards through the transfer portal, such as Alondes Williams from Oklahoma in 2021, Tyree Appebley in 2022, and both Hunter Sallis and Kevin Miller in 2023. Efton Reid transferred in to add some presence in the paint, but the key for the Demon Deacons is the transition game. If they can keep using the transition game to pad their offensive efficiency, they could push two or three rounds into the Big Dance.
2024 Schedule for March Madness
Selection Sunday: Sunday, March 17
First Four: March 19-20
First round: March 21-22
Second round: March 23-24
Sweet 16: March 28-29
Elite Eight: March 30-31
Final Four: Saturday, April 6
NCAA championship game: Monday, April 8
College Basketball National Championship Odds – Top 20
| Purdue Boilermakers +820 | Arizona Wildcats +1025 |
| Houston Cougars +1075 | UConn Huskies +1175 |
| Kansas Jayhawks +1725 | North Carolina Tar Heels +1775 |
| Kentucky Wildcats +1900 | Auburn Tigers +1950 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | Duke Blue Devils |
| Marquette Golden Eagles +2400 | Creighton Blue Jays +2700 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide +2800 | Baylor Bears +3000 |
| BYU Cougars +3600 | Wisconsin Badgers +3800 |
| Michigan State Spartans +3900 | Florida Atlantic Owls +4100 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs +4700 | Illinois Fighting Illini +4900 |
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