It took just six days, but we went from 68 teams competing for the NCAA men’s basketball championship to 16. Two top seeds – Purdue and Kansas – are already done. One 16-seed – Fairleigh Dickinson – almost survived to the second weekend. The only ACC team remaining is Miami (FL). The only Big 12 team left is Kansas…State. The Ivy League team (Princeton) is still in. Alabama and Houston have seen their odds get even better for winning a national championship, but there could still be plenty of surprises on the way. Check out our quick March Madness betting picks for each matchup for Thursday and Friday’s games.
NCAA News: Sweet 16 Betting Predictions
Kansas State Wildcats vs Michigan State Spartans
Thursday, 6:30 pm ET, TBS | The Wildcats forced turnovers in almost a quarter of their opponents’ offensive possessions in the first two rounds, thanks to quick and aggressive guards. Markquis Nowell has made the pick-and-roll an essential element in the K-State offense, and he is also knocking down 43% of his three-balls. Florida transfer Keyontae Johnson has also provided plenty of offense – and disruption on defense.
Michigan State is overperforming, once again, under the tutelage of Tom Izzo. He has led the Spartans to the Sweet 16 for the 15th time despite a roster that lacks much in the way of NBA talent. Tyson Walker has put up 17.5 points per game so far in this tournament, and the Spartans have shot 55% inside the arc through the first two games. On the defensive glass, they have kept USC and Marquette from getting a lot of second-chance points. That kind of work ethic has brought this team a long way. Kansas State to win.
Connecticut Huskies vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Thursday, 7:15 pm ET, CBS | Adama Sanogo has put up huge numbers for the Huskies in the first two rounds. He went 28-13 against Iona, going 13 of 17 from the floor, and he posted a 24-8 against Saint Mary’s. Their margin of victory was a combined 39 points in those games. From the three-point arc, the Huskies have gone 22 of 47 as a team. Their offensive rebounding has been elite, and they only permitted 95 points per 100 possessions in the two wins.
Arkansas had an extended period of futility that started just after Christmas and ended on March 4. They went 8-11 and clanked 68% of their three-point shots. However, they won enough games to stay tournament-relevant by holding the opposition to a combined 46% shooting inside the three-point line. The Razorbacks held Illinois and Kansas well below their shooting averages for the season, and with offensive depth from the likes of Davonte Davis, the Razorbacks have already knocked off one 1-seed and want to keep this run going. Arkansas to win.Tennessee Volunteers vs Florida Atlantic Owls
Thursday, 9:00 pm ET, CBS | The Volunteers have gotten strong thanks to the strength and conditioning program that Rick Barnes has been installed, and that has translated into the top adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the nation from KenPom. The Vols knocked off Duke in the second round by 13, ending a ten-game winning streak by the Blue Devils. Olivier Nkamhoua dropped 27 on Duke, just demolishing them in the paint after halftime. Turnovers have plagued the Volunteers, but they only had nine miscues against the Blue Devils. They move at a grinding pace, but their defense is ironclad.
FAU benefited from discord on the Memphis sideline in the last minutes of their first-round win, and they got to play a 16-seed in the second round. Their offense has put up 108.5 points per 100 possessions, turning the ball over just 16 times, and Johnell Davis has scored 41 points combined in the two wins. But they haven’t seen anyone like Tennessee all year. Tennessee to win.
UCLA Bruins vs Gonzaga Bulldogs
Thursday, 9:45 pm ET, CBS | Injuries are the biggest threat to a long run by the Bruins. Jaylen Clark was the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, but he hasn’t been on the court since the Pac-12 Tournament. Adem Bona returned after a shoulder held him out for two games to face Northwestern. David Singleton (ankle) came up lame during the win over Northwestern. Jaime Jaquez Jr has carried the load, though, shooting 40% from behind the arc in this tournament and scoring 43 points in the team’s two wins. Amari Bailey has 31 points in the two games – and Tyger Campbell has just two turnovers in the Bruins’ last four overall.
Gonzaga has won 11 straight, by an average margin of 18.4 points. The margin was only three in the win over TCU, but the Bulldogs made it through by pounding the ball in to Drew Timme and attacking the rim to get to the free-throw line. Gonzaga is in the Sweet 16 for the eighth straight year – with their most porous defense in over a decade. Can they weather the storm that UCLA’s offense will bring? Gonzaga to win.
Andy Katz’s News NCAA Tournament
Alabama Crimson Tide vs San Diego State Aztecs
Friday, 6:30 pm ET, TBS | Alabama opened with a 21-point romp over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Despite the fact that Brandon Miller (groin) only played 19 minutes and did not score, the team still put up 132 points per 100 possessions. Then Miller came back and put up 19 points and seven boards in a 22-point clinic against Maryland. Alabama is also third in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, so this is a team that can dial up the offense and clamp down on defense – doing both at an elite level.
San Diego State shut down a Furman team that had its eyes on a Sweet 16 berth after upsetting Virginia. The Aztecs have won six in a row, holding their opponents to an average of 85 points per 100 possessions. They shoot the ball well (60.5% inside the arc), which helped them against a Furman team known for its own white-hot scoring. However, having to deal with Charleston and Furman in the first two rounds proved to be a simple road to the Sweet 16. Alabam makes this road much bumpier. Alabama to win.
Houston Cougars vs Miami Hurricanes
Friday, 7:15 pm ET, CBS | Houston still has two of its starters at less than 100%, but Marcus Sasser (groin) and Jamal Shead (knee) both chipped in as the Cougars rolled over Auburn in the second round. The Tigers led at the intermission, but then Houston won the second half, 50-23, as Sasser had 22 points in 31 minutes despite his injury and foul trouble. Shead managed to play 34 minutes and added 10 points. This is a team that has elite talent and fights through adversity.
Miami got Norchad Omier (ankle) back for the NCAA tournament after he went down in the ACC tourney. With 19 points and 31 boards in the first two games, he is ready to play at a top level. Isaiah Wong dropped 27 on Indiana in the second round, as the Hurricanes pushed the offensive pace. The defense has not been good this year for Miami, but it has risen to the occasion in the first two rounds. I’m not sure that the Hurricanes can hang with Houston, though. Houston to win.
Creighton Bluejays vs Princeton Tigers
Friday, 9:00 pm ET, TBS | Creighton was picked in the preseason to win the Big East, and despite some struggles in the early going, the Bluejays have emerged as an elite team. Ryan Nembhard dropped 30 on Baylor in the second round, and the team knocked down 46% of their three-ball attempts. The team struggled from long range in the first-round win over N.C. State, so they put the ball inside to Ryan Kalkbrenner, the 7’1” lane sensation, and he promptly scored 31 points.
Princeton has had some major highs (such as stopping Arizona and Missouri in the tournament, as well as winning the Ivy League regular-season and tournament titles), but they’ve also had some lows, such as losing to the likes of Delaware. When the Tigers are doing well, they control the tempo of the game and run their back-door offense like a machine. Their defense closes out on the perimeter and boxes out in the paint. They have only turned the ball over 8.8 times per game in their current six-game winning streak, so they don’t give away extra possessions. Princeton to win.
Texas Longhorns vs Xavier Musketeers
Friday, 9:45 pm ET, CBS | The Longhorns haven’t just survived under interim coach Rodney Terry – they’ve thrived. Before the start of the season, Texas was considered a threat to get to the Final Four, and the dismissal of Chris Beard has done nothing to change that perception. Dylan Disu’s dominant offensive performances have played a part in this, and so has Timmy Allen’s defense. The Longhorns have won eight of their last ten, and they’re showing no signs of slowing down.
Xavier saw Zach Freemantle (15.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game) go down for the season on February 1 with a foot injury, but Jerome Hunter has taken Freemantle’s place quite capably, putting up 19 points per game in the two NCAA tournament wins. Xavier has gone 7-1 since February 21 and limited Kennesaw State and Pitt to 94 points per 100 possessions on average, but the Longhorns are a major step up in competition. Texas to win.
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