Did you have Michigan State in your Sweet 16? Maybe you thought that Tom Izzo could work his March Madness magic once again, and he has. Did you see Arkansas knocking off Kansas after finishing their regular season with an 8-11 mark? How about Princeton coming back from a double-digit deficit to stun Arizona? What about Fairleigh Dickinson stunning Virginia…and then falling back to Earth to lose to Florida Atlantic? It’s been a crazy NCAA men’s basketball tournament so far, and we’re just one weekend in. Let’s look more closely at some of the Sweet 16 underdogs that could still do a lot of damage…and give you a chance to make some March Madness betting profits.
NCAA News: Sweet 16 Underdogs
Michigan State vs Kansas State
When: Thursday, March 23, at 6:30 pm ET
Where: Madison Square Garden New York, NY
TV / Streaming: TBS, March Madness Live
The Spartans are a 7-seed taking on 3-seed Kansas State. Interestingly, the Spartans come in as 1 ½-point favorites, which I consider a statement about Michigan State’s history as a program. Kansas State has Jerome Tang at head coach; he was the associate head coach for Baylor when they won the national championship two years ago. He has had Markquis Nowell again this season, and Keyontae Johnson transferred in from Florida. Nowell is a master of the pick-and-roll, and he is shooting 43% from behind the arc so far for the tournament. The defense has forced turnovers on 23% of opponent possessions in the wins over Montana State and Kentucky.
For Michigan State, Tyson Walker has scored 17.5 points per game in the tournament without committing a single turnover. That’s the kind of guard leadership that Izzo has brought in prior NCAA tournaments, joining such names as Denzel Valentine, Kalin Lucas and Mateen Cleaves. Michigan State has also made 55% of their shots inside the arc so far in the tournament, and they are cleaning up the defensive glass. The Wildcats earned their 3-seed this season, and I see them covering as underdogs.
Princeton Tigers vs Creighton Bluejays
When: Friday, March 24, at 9:00 pm ET
Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville
TV / Streaming: TBS, March Madness Live
The 15-seed Tigers opened as 9 ½-point underdogs against Creighton. The Tigers bring the same sort of patient, plodding backdoor offense that has marked the program since the days of Pete Carril. They wear their opponents down with a slow pace, using a great deal of the shot clock. They used this patience to come back against Arizona and to keep Missouri from getting enough possessions to dig out of their own deficit. The Princeton defense is smothering; they limited Arizona to a total 27 points below its season average, and Missouri had a tough time getting any open looks at the basket.
Creighton does have an imposing force inside in Ryan Kalkbrenner, who can redirect a lot of shots inside. He will be a challenge for Princeton’s Ryan Langborg, who carries a lot of the offensive load for the Tigers. I think Creighton might be able to eke out this win, but 9 ½ points seems like an awfully big spread here. I will be taking Princeton to cover here.
Florida Atlantic Owls vs Tennessee Volunteers
Four-seed Tennessee comes in as a 4 ½-point favorite over 9-seed FAU. Tennessee brings a smothering defense, but FAU has quickness and depth; none of the Owls average over 26 minutes per game. Guard Johnell Davis puts up 13.9 points per game and leads the team in scoring. Given the high point totals that the Owls put up, this shows you how many different clutch scorers they have. With Tennessee’s defense, though, the Volunteers should be able to take charge. Remember, FAU only took down Fairleigh Dickinson, a 16-seed, by eight points. In this case, I’m going with the favorites to win and cover.
Florida Atlantic vs. FDU – Second Round NCAA tournament
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