On Thursday night, we will see a rematch of last year’s NCAA men’s college basketball tournament final between San Diego State vs UConn. The line for this game opened at UConn -10 ½ on most books and has grown by a point since then. While the Huskies are on an immense roll right now, the Aztecs did just demolish Yale in the second round this past weekend, 85-57, nailing three-ball after three-ball. The Aztecs beat the overall top seed in the tournament last year (Alabama). Can they do it again? They did hold Yale to just five offensive boards and 37% shooting overall while starting the game on 10-0 run and building a 24-point lead by the intermission. They’ll be facing UConn in what consists of a road environment, playing in Boston. Read on to get our NCAAB betting prediction.
NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament Preview East Region, Sweet 16 San Diego State vs UConn
When: Thursday, March 28, 2024
Where: TD Garden, Boston, 7:39 pm ET
TV: TBS
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: fuboTV
NCAAB Odds: San Diego State +11.5 / O/U 135.5 // San Diego State +450 / UConn -630
Why should you bet on the San Diego State Aztecs?
San Diego State scored 1.288 points per possession against Yale and made half of their three-pointers on the night. They also controlled the defensive glass. That perfect storm led to an embarrassment of the Bulldogs. But why should you bet on the Aztecs again? Because rebounding has a lot more to do with position and hustle than it does with talent. The Aztecs have committed to defensive rebounding for two seasons now, and they’ve gone an awfully long way in the Big Dance without superstars shooting the ball. It helps your confidence on the offensive end, though, when you know you are elite with your rebounding, and now the Aztecs are basically playing with house money.
If San Diego State is going to cover this spread (let alone win), they will have to be just as committed on the glass against a team that is bigger, stronger and quicker than Yale was. They also have to be willing to slow the pace way down, because the Huskies will dominate this game if it turns into a track meet. This slower rhythm will keep the Huskies from rolling off big runs and seizing the momentum.
San Diego State Odds to Win Today
Why should you put your money on the UConn Huskies?
This answer begins with two words: Donovan Clingan. The Yale Bulldogs didn’t have a big man who could tangle with San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDee, but the Huskies do. In fact, Clingan might be better. Offensive rebounds should be easier to come by for UConn than they were for Yale, and while the Aztecs did go off with their three-point shooting against Yale, that hasn’t been their pattern on the season, and teams tend to regress toward the mean after big wins.
The Aztecs like to grind opponents down and force turnovers, but the Huskies don’t turn the ball over. Their guards excel at distributing the ball and making the extra pass for easy baskets. Last year, San Diego State’s perimeter players were better than the group this year, and even though the Aztecs made it interesting well into the second half in last year’s national championship game, the Huskies were able to find that next gear and leave San Diego State in the dust.
Connecticut Odds to Win Today
San Diego State vs UConn Final Score and Prediction
A key number for San Diego State is 67. If they hold opponents at or below 67 points, they win – they had a 16-2 record in the 18 games in which they did that. When the Huskies failed to score more than 67 points, they went just 2-3. However, the Aztecs don’t have the defense to contain the Huskies for 40 minutes. They might have the defense to do it for 25 or 30 minutes, but then the Huskies will elevate the offense. UConn to win and cover.
Current Odds to win NCAA Basketball Championship for Top 10 Teams
- UConn Huskies +220
- Houston Cougars +525
- Purdue Boilermakers +600
- Arizona Wildcats +850
- Tennessee Volunteers +1200
- North Carolina Tar Heels +1200
- Marquette Golden Eagles +1600
- Iowa State Cyclones +1900
- Gonzaga Bulldogs +2500
- Duke Blue Devils +2500
- Creighton Bluejays +2500
- Illinois Fighting Illini +3000
- Alabama Crimson Tide +3500
- San Diego State Aztecs +7000
- Clemson Tigers +8000
- NC State Wolfpack +10000
2024 March Madness Schedule
| Round | City | Venue | Dates | Host |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Regional | Boston | TD Garden | March 28 – 30 | Boston College |
| South Regional | Dallas | American Airlines Center | March 29 -31 | Big 12 Conference |
| Midwest Regional | Detroit | Little Caesars Arena | March 29 – 31 | University of Detroit Mercy / Oakland University |
| West Regional | Los Angeles | Crypto.com Arena | March 28 – 30 | Pepperdine University |
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San Diego State vs UConn March Madness Betting Odds
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