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If Sweet 16 is part of your March Madness betting, then you’ve already seen plenty of turmoil in this year’s bracket.
Thursday night marked the first half of the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA men’s basketball championship bracket, and while 1-seed Florida and 2-seed Alabama rolled over their competition easily, there was plenty of intrigue in the last two games.
Duke, also a 1-seed, led Arizona by double digits most of the night before Caleb Love put the Wildcats on his back and forced the Blue Devils to double down to get the win.
Love finished with 35 points, while Duke’s Cooper Flagg dropped 30 points, seven assists, six boards and three blockers on Arizona.
Texas Tech, a 3-seed, came back from a 16-point deficit to knock off 10-seed Arkansass in an 85-83 overtime blockbuster.
March Madness betting: Sweet 16 Friday Preview
Let’s look to Friday night’s contests ahead of the Elite Eight games set for Saturday and Sunday.
Ole Miss (+8.5) vs Michigan State (O/U 134.5)
March Madness Prediction: Michigan State to win and cover
Michigan State makes its 23rd Sweet 16 appearance, while Ole Miss reaches this stage for only the second time, last doing so in 2001. The Spartans secured victories over 15-seed Bryant (87-62) and 10-seed New Mexico (71-63). Known for their strong offensive efficiency and top-ranked defense, Michigan State’s guards, including Jaden Atkins, Tre Holloman, and Jase Richardson, excel in quick transitions, passing, shooting, and perimeter defense.
Ole Miss defeated 11-seed North Carolina by seven and upset 3-seed Iowa State by 13, advancing in the tournament. Guard Sean Padulla, the Rebels’ leading scorer, has consistently scored 20 points in both games. However, Ole Miss struggles with size, ranking 226th in defensive rebounding percentage and 313th in offensive rebounding percentage. If Michigan State can effectively box out and apply pressure on Padulla, they are likely to secure a victory against Ole Miss.
^Kentucky (+4.5) vs Tennessee (O/U 144.5)
March Madness Prediction: Tennessee to cover
This season marks the third clash between Tennessee and Kentucky in the SEC, with Tennessee advancing past Wofford and UCLA, despite Kentucky winning both regular-season games against them.
Kentucky began their tournament by defeating 14-seed Troy, 76-57, followed by a solid win over 6-seed Illinois, 84-75, despite the absence of second-leading scorer Jaxson Robinson, who was lost for the season in February. The Wildcats also bested Tennessee twice, winning by five on the road with Kobe Brea scoring 18 points. At home, they triumphed by 11, led by Ansley Almonor and Otega Oweh, who both contributed 13 points each.
Robinson did not play in the game. The Wildcats have excelled in three-point defense, limiting Tennessee to 22% shooting from beyond the arc, significantly lower than their average of 34.5%. Tennessee’s leading scorer, Chaz Lanier, averages 18.1 points per game but struggles against Kentucky, scoring only 12.5 points per game with 29.6% shooting. The Volunteers need a resurgence from Lanier, raising questions about the Wildcats’ ability to dominate again.
^Michigan (+9) vs Auburn (O/U 154.5)
March Madness Prediction: Auburn to win and cover
Auburn, the tournament’s top seed, continues its winning streak, having decisively defeated 16-seed Alabama State 83-63 and 9-seed Creighton 82-70. Johni Broome, Auburn’s standout player, averages 18.4 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game, making him a contender for National Player of the Year. Although facing strong Michigan big men, Auburn’s performance against larger teams suggests they can successfully meet this challenge.
Michigan defeated 12-seed UC-San Diego in the first round and then secured a notable 12-point victory over 4-seed Texas A&M, relying on their strong frontcourt of Vlad Goldin (7’1″, 16.8 PPG) and Danny Wolf (7′, 9.8 RPG). If they can excel while containing Broome, Michigan stands a chance, though their backcourt lacks the speed to match Auburn’s.
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Purdue (+8.5) vs Houston (O/U 134)
March Madness Prediction: Purdue to cover
The Houston Cougars lead the nation in defensive efficiency and rank 10th offensively, per KenPom, with a 15-game winning streak since February 1. Fifth-year senior guard L.J. Cryer is their standout, averaging 15.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, including a 30-point performance against Gonzaga. He shoots nearly 43% from three-point range and excels defensively. Houston can exploit Purdue’s weak interior defense, permitting the 341st lowest two-point shooting percentage, while their strong ball control minimizes turnovers, placing them in the nation’s top 25 for turnover rate.
Purdue reached the national championship game last year, losing to UConn. Their offense ranks seventh in efficiency, while their defense is at #55. Junior guard Braden Smith leads with 16.0 points, 8.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game, shooting 38% from three-point range. With Houston’s strong defense, the question remains if Houston can cover the spread after the line opened at Houston -8.5.
^Underdogs to Watch: Teams that Could Pull Off Upsets in the Sweet 16
The likeliest teams to pull off upsets on Friday night are Purdue and Kentucky. As we pointed out earlier, it’s odd that Tennessee is a 4 ½-point favorite after losing to Kentucky both at home and on the road earlier this season. The fact that Kentucky was able to beat Tennessee after losing their second-leading scorer for the season tells you about the competitive balance here. I think Kentucky could not only cover this spread but could also send the Volunteers home early from the Big Dance.
The other upset I see looming will come between Purdue and Houston. Both of these teams are elite programs, with top coaching and offensive firepower. The Cougars have a significantly better defense than Purdue does, but if the Boilermakers can get things going on the inside, the Cougars could struggle. I think Kentucky is more likely to pull off the straight-up upset than Purdue is, but I do think the Boilermakers could cover this spread very easily.
^Expert Analysis: Insight from March Madness betting Experts on Sweet 16 Matchups
Joe Lunardi, the pioneer of Bracketology, favors Michigan State in this matchup due to their experience and high expectations. Their guard trio poses significant challenges defensively and offensively. While Ole Miss showcases perimeter speed and talent, they lack in rim defense and rebounding. As pressure escalates and misses occur, the team that excels in securing rebounds will capitalize on second-chance opportunities and potentially exhaust their opponents.
ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum doubts Kentucky can defeat Tennessee for a third time, citing the Volunteers’ talent and Lanier’s prowess. While he finds the Volunteers deserving favorites, he questions the 4 ½-point spread, considering it excessively high.
Joe Lunardi
Lunardi commented on the Auburn-Michigan game, noting Auburn’s backcourt advantages leading to turnovers and fast-break points, which big men struggle to counter. He also highlighted Auburn’s effective outside shooting, capable of mitigating any interior advantages.
Paul Finebaum
Finebaum considers Houston the most vulnerable 1-seed. They convincingly defeated SIU-Edwardsville, allowing only 40 points and showcasing strong rebounding and turnover advantages. In a narrow second-round match against Gonzaga, Houston led by just one point late, ultimately winning 81-76. This close call raises doubts about their capability against a strong opponent like Purdue.
^Consensus Picks: What Are the Most Common Predictions for the Sweet 16?
The consensus favors Michigan State over Ole Miss, as the Spartans, led by Tom Izzo, have a strong track record. Ole Miss’s 10-8 SEC record doesn’t reflect their potential, making the 3.5-point line seem minimal.
Kentucky-Tennessee
Some experts note that the Wildcats shot 50% from downtown in both of their wins over Tennessee, a number that will be tough to accomplish during a third game.
However, these are SEC rivals who know each other well. So there really isn’t a consensus here. The point spread gives Kentucky more value in what should be an intense rivalry game.
Auburn-Michigan
Experts note Auburn’s lackluster performance before the Big Dance, losing three of four games, struggling against Alabama State, and trailing Creighton at halftime. Although they improved after the break, opinions are split in the sports betting community about their chances.
For Houston-Purdue, the Cougars are basically playing a road game as their date with the Boilermakers is set for Indianapolis. They also had to take on an unusually tough 8-seed last weekend in Gonzaga (unless you think that Gonzaga is a bit overhyped this season). As we mentioned earlier, this line has already dropped a point since it opened.
^Wrapping up the Sweet 16 TONIGHT
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 28, 2025
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