The first weekend of the 2021 NCAA men’s basketball tournament provided plenty of surprises and suspense. Oregon State’s hot streak continues, as they plowed into the Sweet Sixteen. Jim Boeheim made a Sweet Sixteen for the 20th time, but this time might be the best of all with his son Buddy driving the team’s offense. Texas bowed out in the first round for the third time — and this time at the hands of tiny Abilene Christian. The Big Ten has proven to be overrated this time, with one-seed Illinois and two-seeds Iowa and Ohio State already out the door.
Take a look at the latest National Championship odds to cut down the nets at the end of the tournament, as well as our thoughts on some of the teams.
NCAA News: Men’s College Basketball National Championship Odds Update
| Team | Odds |
| Gonzaga | +140 |
| Baylor | +350 |
| Michigan | +650 |
| Houston | +700 |
| Alabama | +1000 |
| Loyola-Chicago | +1400 |
| Florida State, Arkansas | +1800 |
| USC | +2600 |
| Villanova, UCLA | +3000 |
| Oregon | +3500 |
| Syracuse | +4500 |
| Creighton | +5500 |
| Oregon State, Oral Roberts University | +7000 |
Gonzaga has seen its odds drop to the point where the bet almost has lost its value. It’s important to remember that no team has finished a perfect season since Indiana did it in 1976, back when the NBA tournament only had 32 teams (five rounds) instead of six. Since the tournament went to 64 teams (after the play-in games) in 1985, three teams have come in with perfect regular seasons: UNLV (1991), Wichita State (2014) and Kentucky (2015). None of them won the championship. Gonzaga has quality wins by large margins this season, having beaten Kansas by 12, Iowa by 11 and Virginia by 23. However, Kansas just took one of the worst losses in program history to USC, and Jayhawks coach Bill Self admitted that this year’s team is one of the least talented in his tenure. Iowa and Virginia have already been dismissed from the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga beat West Virginia by five — and the Mountaineers have already lost as well. I’m usually sour on Gonzaga in the Big Dance because they come in having played two months’ worth of games against West Coast Conference competition. Yes, they drummed Oklahoma by 16 points in the second round, but how will they fare down the stretch? Right one, the value isn’t worth it for me.
Baylor beat Wisconsin impressively in the second round, 76-63, putting up 119 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is moving at a pace that is comparable to that of the Brooklyn Nets, who have the top offense in the NBA according to that metric. Wisconsin’s defense is strong, and Baylor was able to score at will. Given the number of extended shutdowns Baylor’s program has had to undergo this season, their resiliency is impressive. If I have to choose right now between betting on Baylor or Gonzaga to win the title, and if I take the comparative betting value into consideration, I’m leaning toward the Bears at this point.
Alabama just ran right over Maryland in the second round, rolling to a 96-77 win. The Terrapins had not permitted that many points in a regulation game since 2009, but the Crimson Tide is used to scoring in bunches, as they have four 80-point games in their eight-game winning streak. Their defense is also in the top three in the nation. In the win over Maryland, Jaden Shackelford and John Petty Jr put up a combined 41 points, and Jahvon Quinerly, a transfer from Villanova, put up 14 points and 11 assists off the bench. This is a team steaming along under the radar and one of my top dark horse picks.
Loyola-Chicago was poorly seeded at #8, which turned out to be unfair to them — but also to top-seeded Illinois, who should have had an easier matchup in the second round. Yes, Wisconsin beat the Ramblers by double digits in the regular season, and Loyola also lost to Richmond, Indiana State and Drake. However, this team also has the top adjusted defensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom, and they showed it by holding the Illini to 0.88 points per possession in their win. Since January 10, Loyola has lost exactly one time; will they lose again? Not if Sister Jean has anything to say about it.
