2018 NCAA Football Week 3 Against the Spread Picks

The arrival of Thursday means that it’s time for another college football weekend. One of the biggest marquee matchups takes place just a few miles west of Dallas, as #4 Ohio State meets #15 TCU at AT&T Stadium in prime time, and now that conference play is starting to unfold, we’re seeing less of the cupcake action that we saw in the first two weeks of the regular season. We have picked three NCAA Football Week 3 betting matchups for you this week that have favorable point spreads, so take a look! Special note — with the arrival of Hurricane Florence, check for changes in game times and for possible cancellations and postponements of contests before you lock in wagers for games in East Coast states. As always, home teams are in all caps.

2018 NCAA Football Week 3 Against the Spread Picks

AP Top 25 Poll is out https://t.co/lbooTgaeco

— Saturday Down South (@SDS) September 9, 2018

Saturday, September 15

Boise State (+2.5) over OKLAHOMA STATE (3:30pm ET, ESPN)

Boise State gets their first action against solid college football opposition this week, as they have dealt Troy a 56-20 whipping and then routed Connecticut by a 62-7 score. Quarterback Brett Rypien has thrown for seven touchdowns already this season, picking up almost 700 yards along the way. Tailback Alexander Mattison leads the team with 171 yards on the ground and has three touchdowns of his own. Sean Modster is the top receiver so far, with 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Boise has played fairly solid defense, but can they keep up with Oklahoma State’s attack? Taylor Cornelius has replaced Mason Rudolph at the helm of the Cowboys’ offense. They have also rolled to a pair of easy wins, taking apart Missouri State, 58-17, and then dealing South Alabama a 55-13 lesson. Cornelius has thrown for six touchdowns on the season — but also has three interceptions. Justice HIll is the Cowboys’ top running back, with three scores and 154 yards. Boise State has covered the spread in each of their last four non-conference contests and in seven of their last nine games. Oklahoma State has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games outside the Big 12. I expect a lot of offense, but Cornelius’ penchant for throwing the ball to the other team should benefit the Broncos late. NCAA Football Week 3 Pick: Boise State 38, Oklahoma State 34

Colorado State (+20.5) over FLORIDA (4:00pm ET, SEC ESPN Network)

Colorado State found themselves down by 18 points at home to Arkansas a week ago but then stormed back for a 34-27 win, just their second victory over an SEC opponent in their last 14 tries. K.J. Carta Samuels went 32 for 47 for 389 yards and a pair of scores with an interception on the night, with Preston Williams (12 catches for 154 yards and a pair of scores) and Cameron Butler (4 catches for 107 yards) serving as his top targets. Colorado State also had a pair of crucial interceptions to help pace the comeback. Florida comes off a loss to Kentucky a week ago — the first time they had lost to the Wildcats in football since 1986, and the margin was 27-16. Feleipe Franks went just 17 for 38 for 232 yards. He did have two touchdown passes but also threw a pick, and he also led the team in rushing despite picking up just 44 yards. Even though Colorado State has just covered the spread once in their last 10 games, that came last week, and they have covered the spread eight times in their last 11 games away from Fort Collins. Florida has only covered the spread once in their last six games after a loss. This line looks way off base — so I’m taking the Rams. NCAA Football Week 3 Pick: Florida 23, Colorado State 20

North Texas (+7) over ARKANSAS (4:00pm ET, SEC ESPN Network)

Before the season started, I wrote about this game in an article about the biggest upsets for the college football season, and I haven’t changed my mind after the first two games of the year. North Texas delivered a 46-23 thumping to SMU in their opener — a a game in which all 23 points for the Mustangs came in garbage time. They followed that up with a 58-16 whipping of Incarnate Word in which quarterback Mason Fine went 25 for 40 for 418 yards with four scores and a pick, and DeAndre Torrey scored the other three touchdowns on the ground. The defense grabbed three turnovers to keep Incarnate Word away from the ball. Arkansas, in its second game under new head coach Chad Morris, saw the defense give up a 27-9 lead to fall, 34-27. The defensive issues that plagued Morris at SMU have apparently followed him to Fayetteville. Arkansas leans heavily on the run, as Devwah Whaley’s 165 yards on 26 carries were the Razorbacks’ primary offense, as Cole Kelley only threw for 102 yards. If Arkansas can’t get things going on offense, the Mean Green could easily move to 3-0. Even if North Texas loses, I see them covering with that stout defense. NCAA Football Week 3 Pick: Arkansas 20, North Texas 16