The SEC champion enters the 2020 College Football Playoff as the top seed for the third time in the last four seasons. This time, though, it is not the Alabama Crimson Tide, but instead the LSU Tigers, who beat Alabama and then took down Georgia in the SEC Champoinship. Now they will face the Oklahoma Sooners in the Peach Bowl, in one national semifinal, while Clemson will take on Ohio State at the Fiesta Bowl. Both of those games take place on Saturday, December 28, 2019.
Updated 2020 College Football Playoff Odds – December 10th Edition
ICYMI, the #CFBPlayoff top 4: 1️⃣. LSU // @LSUfootball // #GeauxTigers 2️⃣. Ohio State // @OhioStateFB // #GoBucks 3️⃣. Clemson // @ClemsonFB // #AllIn 4️⃣. Oklahoma // @OU_Football // #BoomerSooner Who will we see at the @MBSuperdome on Jan. 13 for the 2020 #NationalChampionship? pic.twitter.com/lfyvMEI0tO
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 9, 2019
- Saturday, December 28
- Peach Bowl: LSU (-12) vs Oklahoma (4:00 pm ET)
- Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State (+1.5) vs Clemson (8:00 pm ET)
Odds to Win the National Championship
Who’s The Favorite?
LSU has earned the top seed, beating five teams in the regular season that were in the top ten when they played — and two that were in the top five. LSU averaged 47.8 points per game for the season and was second in the nation in passing yards per contest, thanks to quarterback Joe Burrow, the heavy favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Burrow completed almost 78 percent of his passes, throwing for 4,715 yards, with a 48:6 TD:INT ratio. The defense has been slightly inconsistent, but down the stretch the unit limited Texas A&M to seven points and Georgia to ten points.
Given that LSU is such a heavy favorite over Oklahoma in the semifinal, betting on them to win the whole thing now at +120, as opposed to something like -150 or -200 in the next round, could be the smart idea.
Does Oklahoma have a shot at LSU?
Their defense did look better against Oklahoma State and Baylor, but neither of those offenses has the skills that Burrow does. Georgia permitted 37 points and 481 total yards, and the Bulldogs’ defense was second in the nation in fewest points permitted and rushing yards. The Oklahoma pass defense permits almost 200 yards per game.
How about the Sooners’ offense?
Jalen Hurts could have some opportunities to feed CeeDee Lamb down the field, but LSU’s secondary just got a pair of picks from Derek Stingley Jr in the SEC Championship.
In the other semifinal, Clemson comes in having permitted 20 or more points in just one game this season — that scare they got at North Carolina. Clemson is ninth in the nation in rushing defense, while Ohio State is seventh. The critique of Clemson, of course, is that their ACC slate is soft, but they did face Texas A&M and South Carolina (who won at Georgia) in non-conference play. Ohio State does have a significantly tougher conference slate playing in the Big Ten.
Clemson’s advantage is playoff experience. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence broke the 300-yard mark in both playoff games last year, and Travis Etienne, Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross scored four touchdowns among them in the championship romp over Alabama. Lawrence had a tough start to the 2019 season, but he has three or more touchdown passes in eight straight games. Against Virginia in the ACC Championship, he went 16 for 22 for 302 yards.
Ball security could be an issue. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields threw for seven touchdowns in the Buckeyes’ last two games, but in the big-time matchups against Penn State and Wisconsin (in the Big Ten Championship) he fumbled four times, losing three of them. It might only take one or two mistakes like that in the early going to find Ohio State down two scores.
Clemson will face its biggest test in Ohio State — but you could also say the same thing about what Ohio State will get from the Tigers. I’m predicting an all-Tiger final — and an LSU national championship.
