So far, the sports betting outcomes from the early bowl games have confounded the conventional wisdom. This is a tricky time of year for wagering, because you’re dealing with teenagers who are out for winter break, traveling (in many cases) far from campus to play a game. In some cases, you have teams who are disappointed in the bowl game they got, teams dealing with a new head coach and teams that are looking to take down a squad from a higher conference. So when you see what happened in Jackson State and BYU’s bowl games, this might become easier to understand.
Let’s take a careful look at the college football bowl games over the next few days.
NCAA News: Bowl Game Picks
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Missouri vs Army (-4)
Wednesday, December 22 | 8:00 pm ET, ESPN
Army is always a unique quantity because of its triple-option offense and the havoc it can play against college defenses accustomed to focusing on pass-heavy attacks. Army beat San Diego State in this same bowl game in 2017 and then routed Houston, 70-14, in the 2018 edition of the game. Army did lose to West Virginia in the 2020 Liberty Bowl, but only by three points. Since 2010, Army is 4-1 in bowl games, but none of those wins have come against Power Five teams. They have only beaten two Power Five teams since 2012; that year, they beat Boston College, and in 2017, when they beat Duke. Missouri has a high-octane offense, but their defense is suspect, and they will have a hard time getting Army off the field.
Army to win and cover: Bet the Game Today
Frisco Football Classic Presented by Ryan – North Texas vs Miami (Ohio) (-3)
Thursday, December 23 | 3:30 pm ET, ESPN
North Texas did shock the college football world with an upset win over UT-San Antonio in the Sun Belt Conference Championship. However, they are 0-4 in bowl games under head coach Seth Littrell, permitting an average of 49 points per game in those contests. That included the 56 permitted to Appalachian State in the Myrtle Beach Bowl last season. This year’s Mean Green do play better defense, permitting fewer than 28 points per game, but Miami has scored at least 33 points in five of their last six games, and the Mean Green can score in bunches as well. The outcome itself is less predictable than the point total, which for this game is 54.5.
Take the over: Bet the Game Today
EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl – Memphis (-8.5) vs Hawai’i
Friday, December 24 | 8:00 pm ET, ESPN
Hawai’i has lost quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and taiback Dae Tae Hunter through the transfer portal. Add that to the already suspect Hawai’i defense, and you have real problems for the hosts. However, Hawai’i has won three of its last four bowl games, including a huge win over Houston last year in the New Mexico Bowl. Memphis has been dreadful in bowl games, dating back to a 2003 win over North Texas at the New Orleans Bowl. Also, Memphis has the distraction of traveling to a tropical paradise, which the host team is familiar with.
Hawai’i to cover: Bet the Game Today
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