As we move closer to the start of the 2021 college football season, one of the more profitable futures wagers available for sports betting enthusiasts is the win/loss total. There are some college football totals that offer virtually no value — and a difficult choice — and most of those are found at the top of each set of projected conference standings.
NCAA News: 5 Best and 5 Worst Win/Loss Totals for the 2021 Football Season
Solid Bet: Stanford over 4 wins
With David Shaw as head coach, the Cardinal have never won fewer than four games, and over the last decade, Stanford has been one of the steadiest teams in the Pac-12. In non-conference play, the Cardinal meet Kansas State and Vanderbilt, both winnable contests, and the parity in the Pac-12 is such that at least two wins should be expected. The Cardinal will have a new quarterback, but getting to five wins (or at least getting the push) seems like a no-brainer.
Stay Away: Clemson 11 ½
Clemson opens with Georgia, and after that, things get a lot easier for the Tigers. So with this win/loss total, you’re basically betting on the outcome of the Georgia game. After that, it’s basically a wager against COVID-19 and injuries — and against a mental breakdown game. The “under” has -135 odds, which is not a lot of value, so either way, your money is at real risk.
Solid Bet: Miami (FL) over 9 ½ wins
The Hurricanes have two tough games: a trip to North Carolina and a game against Alabama at a neutral site. There are several sports betting experts calling the Hurricanes the best team in the ACC right now, but while we should tap the brakes on that claim, Miami does not face Clemson this year, and so getting to 10 wins, even assuming those two losses, is a real possibility.
Stay Away: Alabama 11 ½
The “under” here carries -120 odds so, again, not a lot of value is available here. After that opener against Miami, the Crimson Tide only have two tough dates left: at Texas A&M on October 9 and at Auburn on November 27. The “under” here makes slightly more sense than it does with Clemson, but there are a lot better win total bets out there.
Solid Bet: Nebraska under 6 wins
With Scott Frost as head coach, Nebraska has not topped five wins in a season. Quarterback Adrian Martinez is set to return but poses several uncertainties. Two of the Cornhuskers’ non-conference games come against Buffalo and FCS squad Fordham, but even in the Big Ten West, Nebraska really does not have the talent to contend.
Stay Away: Oklahoma 11
We keep reading about how amazing the new Sooner defense is. We read similar praise for the Oklahoma State defense was a year ago, until it started falling apart midway through the season. Lincoln Riley is not a defensively minded head coach, and until the Sooners put together a solid season on that side of the ball, I’m not buying. The news that Oklahoma and Texas are heading to the SEC really just means that the champion of the softest Power 5 conference (Oklahoma) and the overrated mediocre team that used to be good (Texas) are about to get taken to the woodshed week after week instead of waiting for the Sooners to get rolled in another national semifinal.
Solid Bet: Ole Miss over 7 ½ wins
In 2020, Ole Miss scratched out four wins, and the Rebels only played SEC opponents last season. Lane Kiffin has quarterback Matt Corral coming back, and the team’s running backs are also stout. In non-conference play, Ole Miss has Austin Peay, Liberty and Tulane, and the Rebels also play Louisville at a neutral site — so that’s four highly winnable games. The Rebels get Tennessee and Vanderbilt in crossover SEC games, and they play Arkansas and Mississippi State in the SEC West, giving them a clear path to the “over.”
Stay Away: Ohio State 11
Ohio State starts with three intriguing games: at Minnesota and then at home against Oregon and Tulsa. A 3-0 start wouldn’t surprise me, but neither would a 1-2 opening. The Golden Gophers were surprisingly good at home last year, and Oregon has the offense to come in and knock off the Buckeyes. Tulsa should lose by 30, but they have an opportunistic offense that will jump all over the Buckeyes if Ohio State takes them lightly. Because of this opening, I don’t really feel good about either side of the total.
Solid Bet: SMU over 6
The Mustangs start with home games against Abilene Christian and North Texas. Then they visit Louisiana Tech, who upset them in the Frisco Bowl in Sonny Dykes’ first game on the Hilltop, before heading to TCU. They should be 3-1 at this point and could be 4-0. Then comes a home game against South Florida and a visit to Navy, where SMU rarely wins — but the Midshipmen lost a ton of talent last off-season. Then they come out of the bye with Tulane. At that point, if the Mustangs aren’t at least 5-2, fans should be irate. It gets tougher there, with games at Houston and Memphis, a home game against UCF, a trip to Cincinnati and a home finale against Tulsa. However, the path to seven wins is there for them, even with a new quarterback in Preston Stone.
Stay Away: Kansas 1 ½
The “under” on this is sitting at -210, and even the non-conference slate for the Jayhawks looks daunting: at home against South Dakota, at Coastal Carolina (a top candidate for the highest ranked Group of Five team) and at Duke, a team that is down but not as far down as Kansas. There’s no reason to take the over — and there’s no reason to settle for the bad value of the under.
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