The 2020 Valero Alamo Bowl matches up two former Big 12 rivals in Texas and Colorado. Colorado jumped ship to join the Pac-12 during their last expansion, while Texas remained in the Big 12. Colorado (4-1) had several cancellations and was unable to play USC, but if they can win this bowl game they would be one of the hot teams in the Pac-12 going into 2021. Their lone loss of the season came on December 12, at home against Utah. Texas (6-3) lost to tCU and Iowa State by a combined five points (with both of those coming at home) and fell to Oklahoma by eight points — but in quadruple overtime. Texas coach Tom Herman is 4-0 in bowl games all time and could make his hot seat a little cooler with another bowl win.
Check out our college football betting thoughts about Tuesday’s bowl game.
NCAAF: Valero Alamo Bowl Preview (December 29)
Texas vs Colorado
When: Tuesday, December 29, 2020, 9:00 pm ET
Where: The Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Radio
Live Stream: ESPN+
NCAAF Odds: Texas -9.5 / O/U 64
Why should you bet on the Longhorns?
The offense finally caught fire against Kansas State. It showed some brilliance against Texas and some promise against Iowa State, contributing to 448 yards of offense. However, against Kansas State, the Longhorns picked up 608 yards and put 69 points on the board. Bijan Robinson ran for 113 yards on just 12 carries against West Virginia and ran for 172 yards and three scores against K-State. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger should find plenty of open receivers against the Colorado secondary.
Colorado permitted more than 300 passing yards in each of their first two games and then saw Utah’s Jake Bently throw for 240 yards. Ehlinger posted a 25:5 TD:INT ratio this season. He has a 3-0 record in bowl games, with four touchdown passes. He has also run for 154 yards and four more scores. Texas has the better quarterback in this matchup, and the Longhorns have also done a better job with ball security, just turning the ball over one time in their last four contests. Colorado, in contrast, has six turnovers in their last two games.
Why should you put your money on the Buffaloes?
Colorado prospers with their running game, led by freshman sensation Jarek Broussard. He carried the ball 31 times against UCLA, a sign that the team would learn hard on him this year. In the win over Arizona, he rumbled for 301 yards on the ground. Texas’ run defense has suffered at times, permitting more than 200 yards on the ground in their losses to TCU and Oklahoma.
The Colorado defense is stout as well. Linebacker Carson Wells and the rest of the Buffalo defense combined to put up 43 tackles for loss this season — including 33 just in the last three games. Texas has a solid O-line, but Ehlinger likes to extend plays and see what he can make happen down the field. Sometimes that pays off, and sometimes it leads to bad decisions. Colorado did a terrific job on defense when it came to shutting down third-down conversions, permitting just a 34 percent conversion rate, tops in the Pac-12. Texas converted 49 percent of their third downs in 2019 but only converted 39 percent in 2020.
Final Score and Prediction
This is a big spread, given these two teams, but I see Texas getting up for this game and keeping their offense going. Colorado will put up a fight in the first half, but Texas should pull away down the stretch. I predict a final score of Texas 31, Colorado 17.
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