Sam Pittman has already pulled off a terrific transformation at the University of Arkansas. The team is 2-2 and should be 3-1, but the officiating crew helped Auburn out at a crucial moment in their game. The Razorbacks already ended a lengthy SEC losing streak by taking down Mississippi State in their second game. Next up is a trip to College Station to take on the 3-1 Aggies of Texas A&M. The Aggies got drubbed by Alabama but followed that up with a huge upset of Florida. Can the Razorbacks pull off another big upset, or will the Aggies take care of business?
Don’t miss our college football betting preview of this SEC West matchup.
NCAAF: Arkansas at #7 Texas A&M
Why should you Bet on the Razorbacks?
The biggest improvement for Arkansas has been their defense. In 2019, opponents converted 46 percent of their third-down attempts. In 2020, no team has converted more than 40 percent. Texas A&M is fifth in the nation in third-down conversion rate, so this is definitely a situation in which two teams are bringing strengths against each other. Arkansas snagged six interceptions against Ole Miss two weeks ago, giving the team ten for the season. The Aggies have seven turnovers in four games, so ball security is an issue.
Even more important is the change in culture that has taken place in Fayetteville. Under head coach Chad Morris, the team was expected to score in bunches and just put up enough points to compensate for a shoddy defense. That didn’t work for Morris at SMU, and it didn’t work at Arkansas, either, as the Razorbacks became laughingstocks in the SEC. Now, though, the Razorbacks approach games and look much more alert than they did under Morris. That’s the sort of team that can sneak up on a team like the Aggies, who could be looking ahead on the schedule instead of focusing on a team that isn’t a contender yet.
Why should you Put your Money on the Aggies?
Texas A&M has an old-school offensive line that can provide the team with the blocking it needs to grind the ball down the field and eat time off the clock. Don’t be surprised to see the Aggies have the ball for 35 to 38 minutes — which means Arkansas will have to do its scoring damage in as little as 40 percent of the elapsed time in the game.
Kellen Mond has shown that he can hit the occasional shot down the field. When you’re playing a team like the Aggies, the temptation is to load the box and shut down the running attack and the short passing game. The problem with that approach is that the Aggies have the personnel to take advantage and send a couple of wide receivers on fly routes. With the safety up in the box, there’s no deep help, and you end up giving up a bomb for a touchdown. The Aggies also have a win over Florida on their resume.
Final Score and Prediction
Texas A&M should win this, and even win it fairly easily. What’s interesting is that this line has shifted up a bit, opening at Texas A&M -11 and moving up a point and a half, with heavy action coming in on the Aggies. If you combine the slow style of the Aggies with the opportunism of the Razorbacks, it’s hard to see A&M winning this by two touchdowns. I predict a final score of Texas A&M 24, Arkansas 16 — which means a Razorback cover.
NCAAF | Game Details
Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Saturday, October 31, 2020
7:30 pm ET
SEC Network
Razorback Sports Network / Texas A&M Aggie Sports Network
NCAAF | Game Odds
Texas A&M : -12.5
Total: 54.5
Bet on the Game Here!
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