Buffalo vs Liberty Lines: The tradition of the Bahamas Bowl began in 2014 and currently pairs schools from the Mid-American Conference (MAC) with Conference USA.
Western Kentucky won a track meet over Central Michigan in the first Bahamas Bowl, prevailing, 49-48. Western Kentucky had a 42-14 halftime lead and pushed that lead to 35, but then the Chippewas roared back with 34 unanswered points to draw within one point.
When Central Michigan went for two instead of sending the game to overtime, their gambit failed.
Buffalo finished the season with a four-game winning streak and, back in Week 3, beat a Northern Illinois team that had just pulled off a shocking upset under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus at Notre Dame the week before. They take on a Liberty team missing its starting quarterback, Kaidon Salter.
Liberty has won all three meetings in this rivalry, including a 55-27 shellacking at home last season.
Buffalo vs Liberty Lines, Spread and Totals for the Bahamas Bowl
NCAAF Spread/Total: Buffalo -3 (O/U 50.5)
NCAAF Moneylines: Liberty +126 / Buffalo -155
When: Saturday, January 4, 2025, 11:00am ET
Where: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, The Bahamas
TV: ESPN2
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
Bahamas Bowl Final Score and Prediction for Buffalo vs Liberty Lines
Why is Buffalo a slight favorite here? The Flames come in without their starting quarterback, but the running game has been a strong part of their offense all year long – so the line hasn’t grown that large.
Also, we’ve already seen colleges missing significant portions of their skill groups and still pulling off massive upsets, as we saw in the ReliaQuest Bowl, as Michigan upset Alabama as a double-digit underdog despite missing key receivers, tailbacks and defensive starters.
There are also the distractions of international travel – but the fact that Liberty thumped Buffalo last year should give the Bulls some motivation.
I predict a final score of Buffalo 24, Liberty 16.
^Why should you bet on the Bulls?
Buffalo’s offense has been consistent this season, putting up 355.1 yards and 29.1 points per contest. Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has thrown for 2,244 yards and 19 touchdowns against just five interceptions, completing 57.1% of his passes. He’s done this without much of a standout wide receiving group – the top pass catcher is Victor Snow, with 51 catches for 610 yards and six scores. On the ground, Al-Jay Henderson is the rushing leader with 959 yards and eight scores. Given the issues with the Liberty defense, the Bulls should be able to move the ball.
The Bulls’ defense has been fairly generous, permitting 404.3 yars and 28.0 points per game. Their pass defense has been particularly inconsistent, allowing 258.9 yards per game. They’re limiting opposing running offenses to 145.3 yards per game, though. They still have key contributors Kobe Stewart, Dion Crawford and Shaun Dolac appearing in the bowl on their front seven, and they should be able to bring pressure on a Liberty offense that will be missing its starting quarterback as Salter already left via the transfer portal.
^Why should you put your money on the Flames?
When Salter ran the Liberty offense, the attack hummed, putting up 30.9 points and rolling up 435.3 yards per game, one of the most prolific attacks in the Group of Five. Salter will lead the Colorado offense next year, though, which moves Ryan Burger into the starting slot despite having just seven pass attempts on the season, completing four. The top wide receiver was Treon Sibley, who caught 26 balls for 499 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The top tailback is Quinton Cooley, with 1,254 rushing yards and 13 scores. The Flames will likely try to run their offense through Cooley, which could lead to a mismatch against the strong Buffalo rush defense.
On defense, the Flames have allowed 351.3 yards and 23.3 points per game. On the ground, they have allowed 149.5 yards; through the air, they’ve given up 201.3. The front seven are led by CJ Brazile Jr, TJ Bush Jr, Jerome Jolly Jr and Joseph Carter, and this unit has no opt-outs among key players. They’ll need this unit as Buffalo brings its complete offense from the regular season into this bowl game.
^Sunshine > Snow ☀️🌴😎 #BowlGamesAreBetterInTheBahamas pic.twitter.com/8uyMqEvkAE
— Bahamas Bowl (@TheBahamasBowl) January 2, 2025
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Buffalo vs Liberty Lines: Bahamas Bowl Predictions 2025
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