An intriguing question for College Football Playoff committee members has to do with the Oregon Ducks. They lost to Georgia in Week 1, 49-3, but they have won eight straight games since, putting up at least 30 points in each win. One of those came over UCLA, clearly seen as a contender, and they’ve put up at least 41 points each week since that win. Bo Nix has transformed himself since transferring from Auburn, putting up big numbers. As the weeks go by, though, LSU could win the SEC by beating Georgia in the title game but would still have two losses (Florida State and Tennessee). There’s a lot of football to be played between now and then, though. Let’s take a look at some College Football betting predictions for Week 11. We are looking at a key SEC West showdown as Alabama looks to avoid a third loss at Ole Miss. The other matchup comes from the American Athletic Conference, as Tulane welcomes Central Florida.
NCAA News: Sure Losers for Week 11
→ Saturday, November 12
#10 Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) at #11 Ole Miss Rebels
(3:30 pm ET, CBS)
Alabama can still win the SEC West if it wins out, and LSU stumbles against Arkansas or Texas A&M. However, the road has not been a kind place to the Tide this year, as the offensive line has not given Bryce Young optimal protection and the wide receivers have not been elite. The Rebels have a stout running game, but the Tide have the front seven to contain it. It will come down to how the Rebels do throwing the ball, and despite Lane Kiffin’s preference for a high-flying offense, the Ole Miss offense is not elite in the passing game.
Ole Miss held off Texas A&M, 31-28, in Week 9 and has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare for the Tide. Jaxson Dart threw three touchdown passes in the win, but tailback Quinshon Judkins set the rhythm, running for 205 yards and a score on 34 carries. Alabama got two rushing touchdowns from Roydell Williams in their overtime loss to LSU. I expect Alabama to respond with a better performance after losing in overtime, but this is a big point spread on the road. Ole Miss to cover.
#25 UCF Knights (+2) at #16 Tulane Green Wave
(3:30 pm ET, ESPN2)
This game will resolve the battle for control of the AAC, as the winner approaches a slot in a premier New Year’s Day bowl. UCF has won four in a row in this series. However, the Green Wave have gone 8-1 against the spread this season. The Tulane offense brings physicality, and its top producer is tailback Tyjae Spears. Last time out, Tulane beat Tulsa, 27-13, with Spears running for 157 yards and a score on only 14 carries. Against Memphis, he ran the ball 24 times for 125 yards and a score. Against South Florida, he had 18 carries for 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Knights will need to load the box against the Green Wave and hope that is enough to slow down the running game.
Last year, UCF beat Tulane, 14-10, and Spears ran the ball 15 times for 77 yards and a score. He can bring punishment running between the tackles, but he also has the speed to explode through edge tacklers and zip around the corner for big plays. Tulane will look for ways to get Spears the ball outside the tackles, because the Knights can stack up their front seven. They managed Cincinnati and Memphis’ running games, so the pressure will fall on quarterback Michael Pratt to run the ball on his own – and to stretch the Knights’ defense in the passing game on occasion, although he is much better with his legs than he is with his arm. Pratt only threw for 158 yards against Memphis and 125 against Tulsa. The Green Wave average 238.4 yards through the air per game, but that production needs to increase this week against one of the toughest opponents of the season. Tulane to win and cover.
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