Tomorrow, we will see the first College Football Playoff rankings for 2022, which means that we are probably about to see Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State and Clemson dumped on us for the top four. That means that Jim Harbaugh will spend the rest of the week complaining about the process since his team beat Penn State a lot more convincingly than Ohio State did. There are some other teams with claims, such as TCU, who has four wins against teams that were ranked when they met. However, they have gotten to deal with three backup quarterbacks, and their win over Oklahoma State just got a lot less impressive after Kansas State blew out the Cowboys. Illinois (7-1) has limited seven of their eight opponents to fewer than 300 yards of offense. And what about Oregon (7-1)? After that rout by Georgia, they have scored at least 40 points in each game. Let’s take a look at some teams we feel certain to be sports betting losers in Week 10.
NCAA News: Sure Losers for Week 10
→ Saturday, October 5
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+10) at #7 TCU Horned Frogs
(12:00 pm ET, FOX)
At some point, TCU won’t be able to come back from double-digit deficits and won’t face a backup quarterback in the second half. Their last four wins have all come by single digits. The Red Raiders just got demolished by Baylor, but they have played some teams tough this season. They also beat West Virginia by 38 before losing to Baylor by 28, so with Texas Tech, you just don’t know which team is going to show up.
This line started out at TCU -6.5 and has jumped in the Frogs’ direction. The performance last week may have played a role, but Texas Tech was only down a touchdown going into the fourth period. The Bears put up a 21-0 fourth period, and that was that. Behren Morton threw for just 152 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. Tahj Brooks ran the ball 16 times for 96 yards. With that sort of output, the Red Raiders won’t get much done in Fort Worth.
TCU relies on their high-octane offense; they gave up 31 points at West Virginia last week in a game that was razor-thin until the Horned Frogs scored on a desperation fourth-and-one heave. Max Duggan threw for 341 yards with three touchdowns and a pick, and Kendre Miller ran the ball for 120 yards on just a dozen carries. Reality is likely to catch up with the Horned Frogs, but I’m not sure it will happen this week. Even so, let’s remember that TCU coach Sonny Dykes has seen his teams collapse in November, year after year, after promising starts. At Cal, his teams went 5-12 in November over four seasons. At SMU, they went 6-10 over four seasons. That includes a 2019 campaign in which they started 8-0 and finished 10-3, including an embarrassment in the Boca Raton Bowl. In 2021, SMU started 7-0, but Dykes was so busy interviewing at Texas Tech and TCU that the team finished 1-4. Maybe it’s a lack of ability to make mid-season adjustments, but the wins each week have become slightly more tenuous. Texas Tech to cover.
Michigan State Spartans (+16) at #14 Illinois Fighting Illini
(3:30 pm ET, Big Ten Network)
The Spartans head to Illinois under a shadow after the controversy of the end of their loss to Michigan. Four Michigan State players face indefinite suspension for their alleged role in a brawl in the tunnel after the contest had ended. Illinois brings more physicality with Chase Borwn, and the Illini have covered four out of five times as the favorite, while the Spartans have covered just once in six games as the underdog. Michigan State led Michigan, 7-3, after the first quarter, but then the offense vanished in a 29-7 loss. Elijah Collins had just 22 yards on seven carries. Illinois comes in off a win over Nebraska, rolling to a 26-9 victory. Brown ran for 149 yards on 32 carries and found the end zone once. The line started at Illinois -14 ½, though, so I’m tempted to see if it will expand a little bit more and then take the Spartans. Michigan State to cover.
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