We know that Clemson and Alabama will no longer occupy slots in the top four of the College Football Playoff poll this week after the Tigers got embarrassed at Notre Dame and the Crimson Tide took their second loss of the season, this time against LSU in overtime. What about Tennessee, though? The Volunteers had occupied the top slot in the rankings last week but fell to Georgia at home. There have been three times in the CFP era that a team in the top four lost but remained in one of the playoff slots anyway. In 2014, top-ranked Mississippi State fell to the fourth slot. In 2016, second-ranked Clemson only fell to the fourth slot. In 2016, third-ranked Michigan lost – but held its spot. We’ll know more tomorrow – such as whether 9-0 TCU will find a slot in the top four, even though its wins contain a series of comebacks against teams with three and four losses and against teams featuring backup quarterbacks. Meanwhile, take a look at our Week 11 picks for sports betting wins. This week we feature an SEC West matchup between LSU and Arkansas and a Big Ten showdown as the Nebraska Cornhuskers bring a potential trap game to Ann Arbor on Saturday. As we move to Week 11, here are some winners we feel confident with in our College Football betting.
NCAA News: Sure Winners for Week 11
→ Saturday, November 12
#7 LSU Tigers (-3) at Arkansas Razorbacks (12:00 pm ET, ESPN)
LSU heads north on the momentum of a huge win over Alabama at home. Arkansas seems ready to crumble after a home loss to Liberty, of all teams. If LSU wins and Alabama beats Ole Miss, LSU would clinch the SEC West and a berth in the conference championship game. Arkansas has a terrific running game, but their linebackers and secondary have not had a strong season, and LSU quarterback Jaylen Daniels should be able to find plenty of open receivers down the field. Despite that win over Alabama, LSU is fairly average in most statistical categories, and this trip to Arkansas is just the Tigers’ third true road game of the year.
Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson is technically questionable after taking some big hits in the loss to Liberty, but I expect him to start on Saturday. LSU got Major Burns back against Alabama and he is still healthy, but the biggest question on their injury list is offensive guard Garrett Dellinger. This looms as a huge trap game for the Tigers, but Brian Kelly has had them ready to go each week since that surprising loss to Florida State. LSU to win and cover.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+29.5) at #3 Michigan Wolverines (3:30 pm ET, ABC)
Michigan has been favored to win by at least 20 points three times this season, and while they have won each of those games, they have only covered once. They struggled in the first half against Rutgers last week, going into the locker room at halftime down three, but they rolled in the second half, outsourcing the Scarlet Knights, 38-0, and winning (and covering), 52-17. In conference play, though, the Wolverines are just 3-3 against the spread.
Nebraska is 3-6 straight up and against the spread. In Big Ten play, the Cornhuskers are 2-4, and on the road, the team is 0-2. Last week, Nebraska entered the game against Minnesota as 14 ½-point underdogs but covered, losing by just seven. Michigan has operated in spurts throughout the season; as in their win over Penn State, in which they trailed late before pulling away. The problem for Nebraska is that their offense is not particularly dynamic, but their defense can slow the pace of the game down. I see the Wolverines winning – but not by more than four touchdowns. Nebraska to cover.
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