There have been more heralded matchups in the annual Army-Navy Game, which is the only college football matchup in Week 15. The Army Black Knights (5-6) will meet the Navy Midshipmen (4-7) on Saturday afternoon in a game widely expected to be a defensive grindfest, as the point total (34.5) is about two-thirds what one sees for a lot of college football matchups these days. Both teams like to run the triple-option offense, which means long, slow drives. We have your NCAA Football betting preview for this venerable rivalry game as you consider your weekend’s wagering.
NCAAF Preview: Navy Midshipmen vs Army Black Knights (Saturday, December 10)
When: Saturday, December 10, 2022, 3:00 pm ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
TV: CBS
Radio: ESPN Radio
Live Stream: Sling TV
NCAA Odds: Army -6 / O/U 34.5
Why should you bet on the Midshipmen?
Navy comes in with an inferior record, but they did win their last time out, upsetting the UCF Knights before having Conference Championship Week off. The Midshipmen edged UCF, 17-14, despite the fact that quarterback Xavier Arline had a QB rating of 0.0, attempting one pass (incomplete) for a total of zero yards. It was all running, as Daba Fofana led the way with 20 carries for 114 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per tote. On the day, the Midshipmen ran the ball 63 times for 248 yards, almost four yards per attempt.
On the year, Navy has scored 21 touchdowns on the ground (and eight through the air). They rank seventh in Division I with 239.5 rushing yards per game. Their passing game is a bit of a weakness, though, ranking just 95th in Division I. They have given up 356 yards per game in total offense, and they permit 24.7 points per game. If you like Navy here, you see them coming in off the momentum of that win over UCF. If Navy can control the time of possession and keep Army’s offense off the field, they could build an early lead and smother the Black Knights.
Why should you put your money on the Black Knights?
Army comes in with five wins, but none of their victims (Villanova, Colgate, Lousiana-Monroe, Connecticut and UMass) have been all that impressive. Their win over UMass came in Week 13 by the score of 44-7. Tyhier Tyler went just 2 of 2 for 67 yards, and he carried the ball just 11 times for 101 yards, averaging 9.2 yards per carry. The running total was 329 yards on 56 carries as the Black Knights carry out a similar offensive strategy to Navy.
Army does have a penalty problem, having been called for 52 penalties for 417 yards, which ranks 124th in Division I for discipline. The offense is reasonably productive, scoring 29.4 points per game, which is a fairly high average for a triple-option offense. Their defense is statistically better than Navy’s as they rank sixth in the nation in passing defense, and they permit 23.0 points per game.
Final Score and Prediction
In a rivalry game like this, point spreads can be tricky. In the last seven meetings, Army has won four times, and only two games have been decided by more than seven points. In 2019, Navy came in ranked #23 and rolled, 31-7. Army returned the favor in 2020, rolling to a 15-0 shutout in a year marred by COVID-19 shutdowns. I predict a final score this year of Army 20, Navy 16.
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