Army vs Navy Prediction: Rivalry between the United States Military Academy and Naval Academy began in 1890, continuing uninterrupted since 1930, with the 125th game scheduled for Saturday at Northwest Stadium, Maryland.
Navy leads the all-time series, 62-55, with seven ties, although Army has won the last two.
This game is played at the end of the regular season, now on the second Saturday of December since 2009, and is the final match in the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Series.
Before the 1960s, both Army and Navy were nationally ranked teams, so the game had significance on national championship outcomes.
However, because of strict admissions requirements and a desire on the part of the academies to keep the teams from stirring up animosity from other fan bases, the teams have been more mediocre in recent years.
This campaign is notable, as Army and Navy meet with winning records for the fifth time since 1963; they nearly faced each other for the AAC Championship beforehand.
That didn’t end up happening, though – but the rivalry will keep this game just as gripping as it has been in years past.
Which side should you favor in your sports betting? Read on to get our prediction.
NCAAF Preview: Army vs Navy Prediction, Lines and Pick for 2024/25 Season
NCAAF Odds: Army -6.5 (O/U 38)
When: Saturday, December 14, 2024, 3:00 pm ET
Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
TV: CBS
Radio: ESPN Radio
Live Stream: Hulu
Army Black Knights -250
Army enters with an 11-1 record and an AAC Championship in its first season in the conference. Beating Navy (8-3) would give Army a rare 12th win. Their key player is quarterback Bryson Daily, who has hovered on the edge of the Heisman Trophy conversation (but was not named one of the four finalists). He has run for 1,480 yards and thrown for 877 more while leading the triple-option attack for the Black Knights.
The AVG Possession
The Black Knights leads all FBS programs with an average time of possession of 35:43 per game – not surprising given their triple-option attack, which tends to feature running play after running play, keeping the clock running. In the AAC Championship game against Tulane, they rolled to a 35-14 win. Daily only threw for 17 yards in the win, but he ran the ball 25 times for 126 yards and four scores. Tailback Kayne Udoh carried the ball 20 times for 158 yards and a score. While the defense permitted more yards than their coaching staff would have liked, they didn’t break as a unit and only permitted 14 points.
They're IN THE GAME!
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 10, 2024
Our 101st Airborne uniforms & 🏴☠️ helmet have arrived! #GoArmy x @EASPORTSCollege pic.twitter.com/bKAlMd0v7c
The team scores 32.9 points per game, but the defense only allows 15, so things could get out of hand in a hurry if the Black Knights’ defense can start the game with some three-and-outs for the Midshipmen. The Black Knights run for 308.9 yards per game, tops among FBS programs, and their ability to generate explosive plays through the air, when needed, makes them even tougher.
Army already has its best record in the modern era, and the chance to finish with a 13-1 record (if they beat Navy and then win their bowl game) could end up calling into question the CFP committee’s choice to include just one Group of Five team in their 12-team playoff bracket.
^Navy Midshipmen +198
Quarterback Blake Horvath went down against Tulane late in the year, leading Navy to turn to Braxton Woodson in a come-from-behind win against East Carolina. In that game, Woodson went 12 of 19 for 165 yards and a touchdown, and he carried the ball 15 times for 125 yards and a pair of scores. Horvath has thrown for 1,154 yards and runs for 895 more, accounting for 24 total touchdowns. He is the better choice if he is healthy, but he remains questionable ahead of Saturday’s game.
The Offensive
Navy’s offense has been very productive this season for a triple-option attack, scoring 32.3 points per game. Their rushing game picked up 247.7 yards per game this year, which ranks among FBS programs – not surprising for a triple-option attack, but still an impressive number. They run the ball on more than 75% of their offensive plays and have averaged 5.5 yards per carry.
🔥🔥🔥#FearTheBones🏴☠️ #GoNavy | #Beatarmy pic.twitter.com/o7jtybDRRv
— Navy Football (@NavyFB) December 9, 2024
They are just 125th among FBS teams with 195 first downs, suggesting that when Navy does score, it comes on a chunk play rather than a long, sustained drive. A problem for Navy is that they permit 4.5 yards per rush, and Army could exploit that to just keep the clock running all game long. Navy is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 overall – but just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 against the Black Knights.
^Army vs Navy Final Score and Prediction
Both of these teams run the triple-option offense, which can be frustrating for opposing defensive coordinators, as most college football offenses key on spread formations and high-octane passing games. In past years, though, most defenses have figured out ways to gum up the works of the triple-option because the quarterbacks have lacked the arm strength and accuracy to stretch the field. Most option quarterbacks are run-first players who have speed and strength on the ground.
The Quarterbacks
This year, though, both Army and Navy have quarterbacks who can drop back and stretch the field with explosive plays, making the triple-option more dangerous as opponents are less likely to put nine men in the box to stop it thanks to those deep threats. If you think the point total (39.5) for this game is low, you’re right – in college football, it’s often over 50 points. However, this point total is actually high for an Army-Navy game. Also, the under is 45-10-1 since 2006 when service academies meet (Air Force also tends to run a triple-topin attack).
This rivalry game will make the point spread a tricky proposition, even if Horvath has to miss the contest, but I do see this turning into a ground campaign featuring long, slow possessions, so I’m taking the under in a 20-16 Army win. There are some sports betting prognosticators who think this will turn into a track meet, with both team generating a lot of explosive plays and shooting well past the point total, but I see Army’s defense setting the tone and keeping things slow and conservative.
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Army vs Navy Prediction for 2024/2025
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