Remember when we thought Syracuse might be a contender? Then came that tough loss at Clemson, and then came the free fall. Along with Wake Forest, the Orange have disappointed national observers by stacking up their third losses in Week 10, which makes Clemson’s wins over them less impressive…which makes it less likely that Clemson could snag a playoff spot even if they win out and take the ACC title. UCLA is another one-loss team that could end up on the outside looking in. They beat Utah (who beat USC), but USC is ranked above UCLA. Utah is just one slot behind UCLA. The only team that has beaten UCLA is Oregon. As we look to the NCAA Football betting action for Week 11 in college football, here are our top five picks.
NCAA News: Top 5 Betting Picks for Week 11
Arizona Wildcats (+19.5) at UCLA Bruins
The Bruins sit at #12 in the current CFP poll. If they really want to jump eight spots and land a semifinal berth, they n eed to start winning big. The Wildcats could be a promising place to start, as their defense is dead last among FBS programs – 131 of 131. They are especially atrocious against the run. Their defensive success rate against the run is also last in the nation, and their defensive stuff rate ranks 124th.
UCLA has one of the top rushing offenses in the nation. They rank fourth in the nation in offensive stuff rate (which means that they don’t get stuffed much at all) and fourth in offensive rushing success rate. The Bruins ought to be able to run all day and pick up the style points to impress the committee. Expect UCLA to score and score often. Bruins to win and cover.
Virginia Tech Hokies (+9.5) at Duke Blue Devils
We have two decent defenses squaring off this Saturday. The Hokies can barely move the ball, but they can stifle the opposition. The Duke defense can also get things done, but they only gained more than 300 yards twice this season against FBS opposition – and they lost both of those contests.
Virginia Tech has lost three in a row, but the scores have been tight. They lost to Miami by six, and their last two losses have come by two points combined. However, the front seven is standing up nicely, making it difficult for the opposition to mount sustained drives. So this won’t be a pretty game, and I’m not sure if Duke can win by double digits. However, I feel fairly confident that the offense will be minimal. Take the under (49.5).
Arizona State Sun Devils (+8.5) at Washington State Cougars
This Pac-12 matchup features a pair of offensive lines that struggle to open holes for the running game and yield pressures and sacks on their quarterbacks. Arizona State has turned the corner a bit since firing Herm Edwards, and if they can win this game and the next two, they would end up being bowl eligible. They beat Colorado and pushed UCLA with a dynamic passing game. Washington State’s secondary can be tough, though.
Arizona State’s defense can get takeaways, particularly interceptions, and while their pass rush is below average, they get a Cougar line that is not all that strong. They demolished Stanford, 52-14, last week to end a three-game winning streak, but the Sun Devils bring a little more motivation north this week. Take the under (59.5).
Georgia Bulldogs (-17) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Georgia rides in on a nine-game winning streak, averaging 40.1 points per game. Their win over Tennessee gave them a hammerlock on the SEC East, with Stetson Bennett having a masterful day (257 yards, 2 TD). The defense only permits 10.8 points per game, including 13 against Tennessee.
Mississippi State made the national sports broadcasts thanks to coach Mike Leach’s explanation that last week’s near loss, in which the defense gave up 33 points, happened because his players would rather sit under trees with their girlfriends and eat fish sandwiches. If you don’t believe me, check Twitter. On the year, Mississippi State has permitted just 24 points per game, although their last three games have seen them give up 90 points combined. Can Georgia go to a tough place and win by 17? Given the Mississippi State defense – and inability to run the ball – we say yes. Georgia to win and cover.
#4 TCU Horned Frogs (+7) at #18 Texas Longhorns
TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury that will either slow him down or hold him out, as he remains questionable. They have quarterback Max Duggan, though, the fourth most efficient quarterback in the nation. They face a Texas team with Quinn Ewers and Bijan Robinson, and they will eventually have to play a full game without the other team losing their quarterback to injury. TCU tends to get off to slow starts and then has to come back, and Frogs coach Sonny Dykes is notorious for his teams falling off the table in November after excellent starts, a trend that followed him here from Cal and SMU. Texas to win and cover.
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