Expanding the College Football Betting Playoff to a 12-team bracket is seen as making the national championship more accessible. However, the Power 4 conferences are expected to continue dominating the playoff slots.
The Group of 5 may have a team represented in the lower levels of the bracket if they can remain unbeaten. The Big 12 is likely to remain overrated, even after losing Texas and Oklahoma.
Consider the different tiers within the 134-team Football Bowl Subdivision when organizing sports betting for fall.
College Football Betting Analysis: Ranking the 134 FBS Teams in NCAAF
Title Contenders
Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ole Miss, Michigan, Alabama, Utah
Several college football teams have the potential to not only reach the 12-team semifinal but also win the national championship. Ohio State, with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, strong offensive weapons, and a solid defense, stands out in the Big Ten. Michigan, under a new head coach and offensive system, is also looking promising with key players returning. Ole Miss, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart and a talented receiving corps, has added depth through the transfer portal. Texas, with quarterback Quinn Ewers and a strong offensive line, is a force to be reckoned with in the SEC.
Oregon boasts a solid defense and faces tough opponents in the Big Ten. Georgia, coming off a successful season, is expected to perform well with key players returning. Alabama, under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, looks to continue their success with quarterback Jalen Milroe. Utah, with experienced quarterback Cam Rising and a strong defense, is a top contender in the competitive Big 12 conference. Overall, these teams have the potential for a successful season and could be strong contenders for the national championship title.
^Playoff Possibilities
Florida State, Missouri, Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami (FL), Clemson, LSU, N.C. State, Tennessee, Kansas State
Notre Dame, Missouri, Florida State, Penn State, Miami (FL), Clemson, LSU, N.C. State, Tennessee, and Kansas State are all teams that could potentially make a strong impact on the 12-team bracket but may not ultimately be the last team standing in the playoffs. Notre Dame has made significant additions to its roster, including quarterback Riley Leonard from Duke. Missouri had an impressive 11-2 record last season, and they return key offensive players like Brady Cook and Luther Burden III.
Florida State, despite a 13-0 record last season, missed out on the College Football Playoff due to quarterback injuries. Penn State lacks strong wide receiver talent but could still secure a playoff spot with limited losses. Miami (FL) has focused on transfers to improve their team, while Clemson and LSU are looking to improve on their previous records to secure a playoff spot. N.C. State finished 9-4 last season with a strong finish, and Tennessee and Kansas State have new quarterbacks leading their teams. Overall, these teams have potential, but may not be able to go all the way in the playoffs.
^No Playoffs For You… Yet
Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Oklahoma has a new quarterback and offensive coordinator. There is talent at wide receiver thanks to the transfer portal, but that O-line is patchwork. Texas A&M finished 7-6 last year and showed Jimbo fisher the gate. Mike Elko has Conner Weigman back at quarterback and brought in a lot of talent through the transfer portal, but this feels more like a replenishing year for the Aggies.
^Impressive…but in the Group of Five
Boise State, Liberty, Memphis, Appalachian State, Miami (OH), Fresno State, James Madison, Bowling Green
Boise State is set to face both Oregon and Oregon State this season, with quarterback Malachi Nelson and wide receivers Cam Camper, Latrell Caples, and Chris Marshall leading their offense. Liberty, who had an undefeated regular season, is returning their starting quarterback and tailback but may face skepticism from the CFP committee due to their soft schedule.
Memphis is now the top team in the AAC after changes in the conference, with quarterback Seth Henigan and his top receivers back. Appalachian State has quarterback Joey Aguilar and their top receivers returning, along with most of their defensive players. Miami (OH) is a contender in the MAC with quarterback Brett Gabbert and strong tailbacks. Fresno State, led by quarterback Mikey Keene, looks to upset Power 4 teams. James Madison’s former coach now leads Indiana, replaced by Bob Chesney who has a successful history at Holy Cross. Bowling Green could have the best offense in the MAC, supported by a solid defense.
^Definitely Bowl Eligible
Arizona, USC, Louisville, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Kansas, Wisconsin, SMU, Iowa State, Texas State, Washington, South Carolina, Georgia Tech
Arizona lost Jedd Fisch to Washington who took key talent with him, while Brent Brennan brought talent to the Wildcats. USC struggled with defense despite Caleb Williams. Louisville won 10 games with Tyler Shough at quarterback. Oklahoma State’s defense is inconsistent. West Virginia has an intriguing team led by Garrett Greene. Virginia Tech has key players back. Kansas had a successful season last year. Wisconsin added Tyler Van Dyke at quarterback. SMU has a solid offense but faces tough opponents. Iowa State returns most starters. Texas State had a successful season with Jordan McCloud at quarterback. Washington has a new look with Jedd Fisch as head coach. South Carolina has talent, including quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Georgia Tech needs to improve ball security.
^Power 4…but not all that powerful
Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nebraska, Auburn, Illinois
Iowa had a horrendous offensive season in 2023. Quarterback Cade McNamara is back, and offensive Tim Lester has come in to revamp things. Will the offense be as stout as the defense? Florida does get accurate passing from Graham Mertz, but his average depth of target was the lowest in the SEC. This is a team that must stretch the field. North Carolina will likely replace Drake Maye with Max Johnson out of Texas A&M, but this is a team that could only go 17-10 with Maye running the offense. Colorado improved from one win in 2022 to four wins in 2023.
Shedeur Sanders returns as a top quarterback, and the transfer portal revamped the roster again. Matt Rhule got Nebraska out of the Big Ten basement, and five-star true freshman Dylan Raiola has the keys to the offense. How far can he take it? Auburn has four outstanding wide receivers…but no clear starter at quarterback, as Hugh Freeze is not high on Payton Thorne. Illinois is moving to Barry Lunney Jr’s second season as OC and should stretch the field more thanks to a solid trio of wide receivers.
^Mediocrity with Potential
UCF, Boston College, UNLV, Western Kentucky, Syracuse, Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Texas Tech, Minnesota, Toledo, South Florida, Arkansas, Cal, Louisiana, Oregon State, Houston, Marshall, Colorado State, Northern Illinois, Hawai’i, Wyoming, Rice, Arkansas State.
^Rebuilding for the Future
Tulane, TCU, UCLA, Baylor, Indiana, Washington State, Duke, UTSA, South Alabama, Pitt, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Western Michigan, Georgia Southern, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia, Cincinnati, FIU, Georgia State, Ohio U., Rutgers, Purdue, Navy, San Diego State, Eastern Michigan, Tulsa, North Texas, San Jose State, UTEP, Charlotte, New Mexico, Southern Miss, Sam Houston State, Middle Tennessee State, Buffalo.
^College Football Betting: Searching for Optimism
Army, Troy, BYU, UAB, Utah State, Coastal Carolina, Vanderbilt, Air Force, Stanford, Central Michigan, Arizona State, Ball State, Northwestern, New Mexico State, FAU, Connecticut, Old Dominion, Nevada, East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Akron, Temple, Kent State, UMass, Louisiana-Monroe, Kennesaw State.
^New Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore is one of seven members from the 2023 football program accused of violating NCAA rules in a draft of the NCAA's notice of allegations obtained by ESPN. https://t.co/Zyz7hHbnpq
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) August 4, 2024
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