Which bowl games this year are likely to end in sports betting upsets? Read on to get our Bowl Upsets Picks analysis.
Some of the greatest stories from college football involve upsets in bowl games. If we go back to 1995, Texas squared off with Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl under clouds of controversy.
The Longhorns used a 30-yarder under a fake name, which snapped their six-game winning streak. The Hokies, led by Brian Still, won 28-10 with 119 yards receiving.
Perhaps the most storied upset in bowl game history took place in the 1984 Orange Bowl, when the Miami Hurricanes edged the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 31-30.
Miami entered as the fifth-ranked team in the nation, taking on top-ranked Nebraska, who had a perfect record coming in.
Bernie Kosar threw two touchdown passes for Miami, and Nebraska countered with a “fumblerooski” play that led to a 19-yard touchdown rumble for offensive lineman Dean Steinkuhler.
This game took place before overtime, so when Nebraska scored with 48 seconds left in regulation, coach Tom Osborne famously opted to go for two instead of taking the tie with a kick. The try failed, and Miami ended up with a national championship.
Top Bowl Upsets Picks for 2024/25 Season
Upset Alerts
Frisco Bowl: Memphis Tigers (-4.5) vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Bowl Pick: West Virginia to cover
When: December 17, 9:00 pm ET, ESPN
West Virginia sent head coach Neal Brown packing despite the team getting to a bowl game. Expectations for the Mountaineers were higher in an expanded Big 12 season, and the Mountaineers just couldn’t sniff the conference title game. An interim coach will guide West Virginia here, and it will be interesting to see if he can get better ball security out of quarterback Garrett Greene, who had too many picks in the regular season.
Of course, Greene could also opt out of the draft, although his NFL buzz is not that high. For Memphis, quarterback Seth Henigan (3,208 passing yards, 23 touchdowns) and tailback Mario Anderson (1,292 yards, 17 TD) can put up the offense, but Memphis’ Achilles heel has been its defense this season.
^LA Bowl: Cal Golden Bears (-1.5) vs UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
Bowl Pick: UNLV to win
When: December 18, 9:00 pm ET, ESPN
UNLV has an interim coach in Del Alexander, as Barry Odom left right after the Mountain West Conference title game to take the job at Purdue. UNLV wide receiver Ricky White might opt out to head for the draft, so keep an eye on that before locking in any big wagers here. With that said, the Golden Bears permitted 128 points in their last four games combined. They went 2-2 in those games, but that defense is not good right now, and their quarterback health situation is up in the air right now as well. This is a Cal team that won at Auburn in the early part of the season, but they did not finish strong.
^New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern Eagles (-6) vs Sam Houston State Bearkats
Bowl Pick: Sam Houston to cover
When: December 19, 7:00 pm ET, ESPN
Sam Houston is in a bowl game for the first time in K.C. Keller’s second campaign as head coach. Georgia Southern has been to a pair of bowl games under Clay Helton but is still looking for their first bowl victory. As an underdog, Sam Houston went 3-1 against the spread, winning all three of those games straight up as well. The Bearkats have a solid defense and will keep this game closer than that spread.
^Cure Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (-3) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Bowl Pick: Jacksonville State to cover
When: December 20, 12:00 pm ET, ESPN
Ohio has its first MAC Championship in 56 years. What did the players get as a reward? To watch head coach Tim Albin move “up” to the AAC, taking the head job at Charlotte. They face a Jacksonville State team that won Conference USA under Rich Rodriguez, who is (you guessed it) leaving to take the head job at Big 12 program West Virginia, returning to the campus where he earned a very brief stint at Michigan.
Both teams have solid running games; Jacksonville State has Tre Stewart, who ran for 1,604 yards and 23 touchdowns, while Ohio has Anthony Tyus II, who ran for 1,111 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Bobcats finished with a six-game winning streak against the spread, but I see Jacksonville State coming in with a better program.
^Bowl Upsets Picks: Rivalry Alerts
Go Bowling Military Bowl: N.C. State Wolfpack (-5.5) vs East Carolina Pirates
Bowl Pick: Pirates to cover
When: December 28, 5:45 pm ET, ESPN
These two schools share an in-state rivalry of sorts. They’ve met six times since 2010, splitting those meetings. In 2024, the Wolfpack permitted 30.5 points per game, ranking 104th among FBS programs. East Carolina fired Mike Houston after a dreadful start, and interim coach Blake Harrell led the Pirates to a 4-1 finish and a bowl game.
Katin Houser, a Michigan State transfer, threw for 1,859 yards and 18 touchdowns with nine interceptions on the season. Over those last five games, though, he figured things out, throwing 15 of those 19 touchdowns over that stretch. This is an AAC-ACC matchup, and the Wolfpack may feel like this win will be easier than it turns out to be.
^Valero Alamo Bowl: Colorado Buffaloes (-3) vs BYU Cougars
Bowl Pick: Buffaloes to win and cover
When: December 28, 7:30 pm ET, ABC
These two teams both hail from the Big 12 – a bit of an oddity for a bowl game, but they didn’t meet in regular-season Big 12 play. There is a distinct possibility that Travis Hunter and/or Shedeur Sanders might opt out for the NFL draft ahead of this game, but head coach Deion Sanders has firmly stated that both will play. Hopefully that holds, as this will produce a much better game.
BYU posted a +9 turnover ratios this season, but Colorado’s ball security was excellent this season – contributing to their +11 turnover ratios. This is a meeting that will turn into a conference rivalry down the road, and expect to see both Hunter and Sanders demonstrate why they will go early in the first round.
^Reliaquest Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide (-10.5) vs Michigan Wolverines
Bowl Pick: Wolverines to cover
When: December 31, 12:00 pm ET, ESPN
These two teams met in the Rose Bowl last year, and now they renew that rivalry in a slightly less glamorous setting. Michigan finished 7-5, but that win over Ohio State was a glorious bullet point on their resume. Alabama finished 9-3, a record that some thought should have earned them a CFP bid, but those three losses included setbacks against unranked Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.
Look for opt-outs in the form of Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and much of the Michigan front seven on defense. The Wolverines’ offense struggled all season for quarterback Davis Warren, so do not anticipate the sort of track meet we saw last year. Expect a bit of a grinding pace, and expect the Wolverines to hang around.
^Cam Ward is named the Davey O'Brien National QB Award winner 🏆🙌 pic.twitter.com/qEjnzJkB3D
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 13, 2024
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