College Football Bowl Projections: 1st Round, Quarterfinals, Semifinals and Final Analysis for Week 15

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College Football Bowl Projections | Rivalry Week vividly highlights the differences between the college and pro football games. Rivalry games bring out the best (and sometimes the worst) in the young men who take the field and the older men who coach them.

That’s how we end up with skirmishes at midfield when a visiting rival takes down its opponent on their home field and then wants to plant their flag on the loser’s logo.

It’s how we end up with a highly talented Ohio State offense collapsing at home and losing to a Michigan team that could barely move the ball.

It’s how the city of College Station, Texas, will once again turn into a cavernous echo chamber of intimidation every other year when the Texas Longhorns show up to play the Texas A&M Aggies.

Rivalries can transcend conference boundaries, evoking strong emotions, like in the Georgia vs. Georgia Tech matchup. The underdog Tech led 17-0 at halftime and 27-13 late, but ultimately faltered, losing after an astonishing eight overtimes.

This week we await the conference championship games, let’s look down the road to bowl game projections as you start to plan your sports betting strategy for the end of the year.

College Football Bowl Projections for 2024/25 Season

Obviously, the conference championships could still shake these projections up, as could the voting of the College Football Playoff committee.

Projections predict Texas defeating Georgia to win the SEC, SMU overcoming Clemson for the ACC title, and Notre Dame hosting a first-round playoff game. Despite three losses, Alabama is expected to secure a playoff spot due to favoritism from the CFP.

College Football Playoff First Round (December 20-21)

• Alabama Crimson Tide at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes
• Boise State Broncos at Georgia Bulldogs
• Tennessee Volunteers at Penn State Nittany Lions

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

• Alabama Crimson Tide vs Arizona State Sun Devils (Fiesta Bowl, December 31)
• Georgia Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns (Sugar Bowl, January 1)
• Tennessee Volunteers vs Oregon Ducks (Rose Bowl, January 1)
• Ohio State Buckeyes vs SMU Mustangs (Peach Bowl, January 1)

College Football Playoff Semifinals

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Oregon Ducks (Orange Bowl, January 9)
• SMU Mustangs vs Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl, January 10)

College Football Playoff Finals

• College Football Bowls Projections: Oregon defeats Texas

Oregon Ducks

Why do we have Oregon winning the whole thing? Because they just keep winning – and winning big. They finished 12-0, the only Power 4 unbeaten team. They finished their season with a 49-21 undressing of Washington on Saturday.

Their defense stacked up 10 sacks against Washington, and their offense had five rushing touchdowns, while the O-line didn’t allow a single sacks. That line was a little iffy to start the season, permitting seven sacks in two games.

Since then, though, they have figured things out, permitting just five sacks over the last nine games. It helped that they moved Iapani Laloulu to center in their fourth game, a decision that has paid dividends.

Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns made the national semifinals last year as well before falling to Washington in the Sugar Bowl. Their main problem was their pass defense, which permitted 254.4 yards per game and ranked 116th in the nation. That has been their most significant area of improvement this year, as they allow the fewest yards per play and fewest yards per pass attempt in the FBS.

We saw this in their defensive struggle against Texas A&M as the Longhorns did not permit an offensive touchdown and held the Aggies to their lowest home point total in 22 years. They only permitted 102 rushing yards and kept Aggie quarterback Marcel Reed on the run. They also ran for an eye-popping 243 yards, allowing them to dominate the rhythm of the game.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Coming into 2024, Penn State coach James Franklin had a 3-17 all-time record against top-ten teams. Against teams in the top five, he has a 1-13 career mark. The only reason his Nittany Lions are in the Big Ten Championship was Ohio State’s shocking home loss to Michigan. They’re great against middle and bottom-feeders in the Big Ten, as we saw when they routed Maryland on Saturday, 44-7. Now they have a chance at Oregon in the Big Ten Championship; a win would give them a bye. They won’t be getting that bye, and I also don’t see them getting past Tennessee.

SMU Mustangs

SMU is likely going to the CFP whether they beat Clemson on Saturday, although a win would almost certainly give them a bye with a 12-1 record and an unbeaten ACC season. They have won nine games in a row; in eight of those games, they’ve scored at least 33 points. The exception was a 28-27 overtime win at Duke, in which the offense turned the ball over five times without surrendering a single point on any of those turnovers.

Brashard Smith ran for 68 yards and caught two touchdown passes in the Mustangs’ 38-6 win over Cal. The defense has been even better for this team, though. Against Virginia and Cal in the last two games, the SMU defense has surrendered a total of 13 points. Nick Saban referred to SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings as one of the most underrated college players in the nation right now. Jennings is about to get his national showcase, so we’ll see how he comports himself against the likes of Clemson and other blue-bloods in the CFP.

College Football Bowl Projections: Non-CFP Bowl Games

There's never been a College Football Playoff like the one that will kick off three weeks from today.#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆@ESPN • @ESPNCFB • @ESPNPR • TNTSportsUS pic.twitter.com/FMvYpPAWyv

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 29, 2024

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College Football Bowl Projections, Week 15

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