Alabama and Ohio State are preparing to square off at Hard Rock Stadium this coming Monday night in the College Football Playoff Championship. The problems that Ohio State has had with COVID-19 in its roster has the point spread growing; it currently sits at Alabama -7.5, with a solid majority of the action on the Tide to cover. Interestingly, January 18 was selected as a backup date, just in case Ohio State loses a position group to contact tracing or positive tests. Meanwhile, Alabama lost Nick Saban for a game because of his positive test, but the squad has remained remarkably COVID-free. The over-under total sits at 75 ½, down from 77 at the opening, with most of the action on the “under.” That makes sense, given how Alabama likes to slow things down when they take a comfortable lead.
Let’s take a look at the game as you consider your online college football betting options for this matchup.
NCAA News: CFP Championship Odds
Alabama has an offense that has not stopped producing all season long, which is why Texas has already moved to hire Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian as their next head coach, spending $24 million to buy out Tom Herman and his staff, on top of whatever sacks of cash they have to dump on Sarkisian. The Alabama offense has put up no fewer than 31 points in any game this season, and in 10 of their games they have scored at least 40. Against opponents in the Top 25, they average almost eight yards per play on offense, and Mac Jones has completed 77 percent of his passes. He has the best quarterback rating in the nation (203.03), with 4,036 yards, 36 touchdown passes and four picks. He has Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith at receiver, but if Smith is drawing double coverage, he also has Slade Bolden, Jahleel Billingsley and John Metchie III. Alabama should be able to find open receivers against the Ohio State secondary.
How about the Alabama defense? They did permit 46 points against Florida in the SEC Championship. However, on the season, they ranked second in the SEC in fewest yards allowed per play. Over the last six games, including the SEC Championship, they permitted an average of 16 points per game. Much of this defensive success stemmed from a pass rush that generated 34 sacks, second in the SEC. Christopher Allen and Will Anderson, the starting edge rushers, posted a combined 22 ½ tackles for loss. So while the Buckeyes may be able to move up and down the field, finding the end zone could be much tougher.
When it comes to Ohio State, they only have played seven games, but their emphatic win over Clemson in the CFP semifinal showed that they belong in the championship. An interesting factor about the differential in games played for Ohio State and Clemson (and Ohio State and Alabama) was how much faster Ohio State looked than Clemson. They had played slightly more than half the games that Clemson had, so they had a lot less mileage on the season. Could that help them against Alabama as well?
Don’t underestimate the courage that Justin Fields showed in the semifinal, coming back from a crushing blow to his ribs to lead the Buckeye offense up and down the field. His six touchdown passes against Clemson were an emphatic reminder of how motivated he was to play better against Clemson after the semifinal loss a year ago. Fields has Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave as his top wide receivers, but Jameson Williams and Julian Fleming have emerged as solid options. Then there’s Trey Sermon, who has turned into a beast the last two games, running for 331 yards against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship and over 200 yards against Clemson. Then there’s the offensive line, which did not allow Clemson to post a pressure of Fields in their game.
The real question is whether Ohio State can muster the same intensity against Alabama that they did against Clemson, where the motivation was clear. Will Fields be less mobile a week after that painful-looking hit to his ribs? Alabama just keeps winning titles, and they have the speed and the size to deal with Ohio State. I’m taking Alabama to win and cover.
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