The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs will square off for the national championship on Monday, January 10. This is a rematch of the 2017 national championship, which Georgia led at halftime, only to see Alabama insert freshman Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback at the half, sending Jalen Hurts to the bench. Tagovailoa brought the Tide back to tie the game and force overtime, and it was Tagovailoa’s bomb in overtime that brought Alabama the 26-23 win. Both teams come in with matching 13-1 records; Alabama’s lone loss came at then-unranked Texas A&M during the regular season. Georgia’s only setback, of course, came in 41-24 fashion at the hands of Alabama at the SEC Championship. Despite the fact that Kirby Smart has not managed to come close to beating Alabama since Georgia coughed up that lead in the national championship game, the Bulldogs opened as three-point sports betting favorites, and that line has already crept down to 2 ½ points.
Let’s take a closer look at these early college football odds and see what makes sense for an early wager for you.
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Georgia has not beaten Alabama since 2008, as the Tide has won the last seven meetings. This is the fifth consecutive time that the teams meet with both sides ranked in the top five. Against the spread this season, Alabama is 8-6. In the SEC Championship, Alabama came in as an underdog for the first time since 2015 – and they easily covered in their 17-point win. In games where the spread is under 14 points, Alabama is 2-0 against the spread. Georgia is 9-5 against the spread so far this season, but when the spread is fewer than 20 points, they have covered five times in six chances (with the SEC Championship loss serving as the exception).
In the last seven games (all Alabama straight up wins), the underdog has covered six times. The exception came in the teams’ 2020 meeting, when Alabama rolled to a 41-24 win despite just being four-point favorites. If you’re wondering why Georgia would be the favorite here, given how poorly Kirby Smart has managed to prepare his team for his prior meetings with Alabama.
Can Stetson Bennett Make the Third Time the Charm?
Georgia’s quarterback has put up 304.5 passing yards per game in the team’s last two games against the Tide, but his completion rate has been just 58.8 percent, and despite throwing five touchdown passes in those games, he has also thrown five interceptions. Brock Bowers was his top target in the SEC Championship, catching ten balls for 139 yards. On Alabama’s side of the ball, the secondary lost Jalyn Armour-Davis to a hip injury in the national semifinal against Cincinnati, and he is questionable for the Georgia matchup, and the Tide already lost cornerback Josh Jobe for the year. This could make things easier for Bennett.
How Will Alabama Deal with the Loss of John Metchie III?
The talented wideout tore an ACL during the SEC Championship and will not play next Monday. Against Cincinnati, the Tide were able to execute more of a run-first offense. Jameson Williams ran more possession-level routes, catching seven passes for 62 yards. Slade Bolden and Ja’Corey Brooks also caught touchdown passes, and look for tight end Jahleel Billingsley to catch passes against Georgia as well. The Tide don’t have as many deep threats, though, with Metchie out.
Who Can Get Pressure on the Passer?
Alabama could use linebackers Christian Harris and Will Anderson Jr to blitz Bennett; in the SEC Championship, the duo combined for 11 tackes, while Anderson had a sack. Georgia did not manage a sack against Alabama in that game, although Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis, both All-Americans, rebounded nicely against Michigan with big games. They will need to do a better job getting after Bryce Young if Georgia wants to win this game.
What’s the Smart Bet?
What has essentially changed since Alabama beat Georgia by 17 in the SEC Championship? Neither team has seen any dropoff due to the transfer portal or opt-outs. While Alabama has a few more banged-up players, putting Georgia as the favorite is a baffling choice. I like Alabama to win, so as long as you can get them as the underdog, I’d take that value all day long.
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