One of the ugly features of celebrity sports culture reared its head in the aftermath of the College Football Playoff committee listening to the petulance of Nick Saban and giving his one-loss Alabama Crimson Tide a spot in the national semifinals, leaving 13-0 Florida State, the ACC champions, out in the cold. Saban’s cell phone number was leaked online, and he ended up getting over 250 anonymous callers cussing him out and telling him that the Tide don’t deserve to be in the playoff. Looking at how well Jalen Milroe has played at quarterback for the Tide this year, it’s hard to see anyone stopping them at this point. They will face the Michigan Wolverines in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, and they opened as 2 ½-point underdogs, but that line is already shrinking. Can Alabama win the CFP National Championship? Of course they can, and here’s why you should consider them in your NCAAF betting.
2023 CFP National Championship Updated Odds: Why Alabama Will Win
They don’t listen to the noise
Alabama had no business beating Auburn. They had a fourth-down play from the Auburn 30 with just a few ticks left on the clock, and all Jalen Milroe had as an option was to heave the ball into the end zone. As has happened so many times before for Alabama, an opposing team melted down under the bright lights of pressure, and the Tide got a game-winning touchdown. They still would have gotten into the SEC Championship with a loss, and they still might have beaten Georgia, as the Bulldogs lay down for the Tide in the SEC Championship in 2021 before bouncing back to beat them in a national championship rematch. Even after losing to Texas at home by ten, the Tide picked themselves up and figured out how to run their offense, and they haven’t looked back since.
Jim Harbaugh does not do well in bowl games
Yes, Jim Harbaugh led the Wolverines to a 41-7 shellacking of the Florida Gators in the 2016 Citrus Bowl. Since then, he has a six-game losing streak in bowl games. We’ve read a lot about how the Wolverines have likely benefited from a signal-stealing scheme the past few seasons, as team staffers have filmed the offensive signals of future opponents, in violation of NCAA rules. Supposedly, TCU’s coaching staff learned about this and switched up their signals, which helped them build that early lead against Michigan in last year’s Fiesta Bowl. Michigan tried to come back but ended up losing by six. The three bowl games that Harbaugh took Michigan to before the debacle against TCU were losses by a combined 68 points.
What’s the difference between the regular season and bowl game preparation? Even for the conference championship, teams only have a week to prepare for the next opponent. During the regular season, bye weeks add a week of recovery and preparation. For a bowl game, though, coaching staffs have as much as a month to prepare for the next opponent. They break down all of their tendencies and have the opportunity to find more of their weaknesses. This process has not worked out well for Harbaugh at Michigan.
Alabama’s defense can stop Michigan
The Alabama front seven took Georgia’s O-line to the woodshed, play after play, last week. This meant that the Tide didn’t have to drop a safety into the box and could remain in two-high coverage to keep the Bulldogs from nailing deep passing plays. J.J. McCarthy is a gifted quarterback, but can he thread the needle on medium and long passes against this secondary? If the Alabama front seven is this tough against Michigan, then the Wolverines will have an even harder time moving the ball than they did against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.
Jalen Milroe will have a massive chip on his shoulder
Why? Because he wasn’t named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. Three other quarterbacks did: Jayden Daniels (LSU), Bo Nix (Oregon), and Michael Penix Jr (Washington). The other finalist is a wide receiver – Marvin Harrison Jr from Ohio State. Milroe has averaged more than 10 yards per attempt in 2023 and has accounted for 35 total touchdowns, as well as 3,506 all-purpose yards. He also led his team past a Georgia team that had a 29-game winning streak. So you know that, with master motivator/manipulator Nick Saban whispering in his ear, Milroe will be ready to torch Michigan.
CFP National Championship Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | +190 |
| Georgia Bulldogs | +210 |
| Oregon Ducks | +500 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +800 |
| Texas Longhorns | +900 |
| Washington Huskies | +1500 |
| Florida State Seminoles | +2500 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | +4000 |
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