If Texas had beaten Oklahoma, but not Alabama, would they be in the College Football Playoff? Let’s say that Alabama had prevailed by ten instead of Texas, and that Alabama had gone on to beat Georgia by three points in the SEC Championship. Wouldn’t we see Georgia in that fourth slot? Of course we would. The CFP committee has to be tired of the embarrassment that comes with letting in a Big 12 team, only to see hilarity ensue. It used to be Oklahoma, who would roll through Big 12 play unbeaten and then get absolutely undressed on national television. Last year it was TCU, which took an historic beating in the National Championship. Is it Texas’ turn to take the Big 12 beating in the playoff? I’m not so sure. Yes, they needed overtime to beat then-#23 Kansas State at home. Yes, they almost let TCU (5-7 this time around, falling from the national championship to failure to gain bowl eligibility) come back and beat them on the road. However, they also beat then-#24 Kansas by 26 and finished with a 50-point beating of Texas Tech and a 28-point thrashing of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship. The Longhorns are NCAAF betting favorites to beat Washington in the Sugar Bowl. Can they keep going and win a CFP National Championship? Read on to find out why you should pick them to win it all.
2023 CFP National Championship Updated Odds: Why Texas Will Win
They don’t see Alabama in the semifinals
Alabama and Texas have played twice in the last 18 months. Alabama just barely beat Texas in Austin in 2022, while Texas paid the Tide back with a 10-point win in Tuscaloosa in Week 2 this year. The amount of film that the Tide have on the Longhorns would make the month of preparation before the national semifinals would give Nick Saban a lot to work with. Instead, Texas starts with Washington, coming in as favorites. Washington beat Texas last year, 27-20, in the Valero Bowl, but the Longhorns’ offense wasn’t clicking last year. Getting by Washington in the semifinal will leave Texas and Alabama with just a week to prepare for each other, if they both win on New Year’s Day, and that would even the playing field.
Texas has real balance on offense
Quinn Ewers had a long, winding road from Southlake (Tx.) Carroll High School to early enrollment at Ohio State through the transfer portal back to the University of Texas. The trip has paid off, as he put up 3,161 passing yards despite missing time to injury, completing 70.7% of his passes and posting a 21:6 TD:INT ratio. Tailback Jonathan Brooks led the team with 1,138 rushing yards, finding the end zone 10 times. He also caught 25 passes out of the backfield for 286 yards and a score. C.J. Baxter was a nice change-of-pace tailback with 596 yards and four touchdowns. The top receiver was Xavier Worthy, who caught 73 balls for 969 yards and five scores. Adonai Mitchell had 10 receiving touchdowns on just 51 catches, good for 813 yards. That kind of balance will keep Washington and Alabama from loading the box – and the Texas O-line can protect Ewers and open up enough holes in the running game.
Texas has a bowl-sized chip on its shoulder
The Longhorns had a shot at the Big 12 Championship last year before they lost at home to TCU. They had to settle for the Valero Bowl, where they lost to a more motivated Washington Huskies team. This time around, they have the chance to get revenge against Washington and against a sports public that, for the last couple of seasons, has been publicly ridiculing both Texas and Oklahoma ahead of their move to the SEC, believing that the Longhorns and Sooners will join the ranks of Texas A&M and Arkansas, interesting but ultimately inconsequential in terms of contender status. The Longhorns have a chance to reverse this narrative ahead of joining the SEC, and based on the way their offense has been playing, they have a real chance to win two more games and claim the first program’s first national title since 2009.
CFP National Championship Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | +180 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +200 |
| Texas Longhorns | +260 |
| Washington Huskies | +650 |
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