The ACC champion Pittsburgh Panthers face the Michigan State Spartans in the Peach Bowl on Thursday night, but this showdown between two ten-win teams is not as exciting as it might otherwise have been. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett, who was also a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, has opted out ahead of the NFL draft, as did Michigan State tailback Kenneth Walker III, who won the Doak Walker Award as the top running back, ranking second in the nation in rushing yards. Even so, Michigan State did beat Michigan while making a run at the College Football Playoff, and Pitt took Clemson’s place in winning a Power 5 conference.
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NCAAF Preview: Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl Preview (Thursday, December 30)
Pitt Panthers (11-2) vs Michigan State Spartans (10-2)
When: Thursday, December 30, 2021, 7:00 pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Odds: Michigan State -2.5 / O/U 56 // Pitt +120 / Michigan State -140
Why should you bet on the Panthers?
It’s a shame that Pickett opted out, because Michigan State has a dreadful secondary (as we saw in the demolition that Ohio State handed them). Nick Patti will get the start instead, and he has started before, but that was in 2019 when the Spartans faced Delaware, an FCS program. The Panthers did add Kedon Slovis through the transfer portal, and this is Patti’s chance to show he deserves to start over the USC product. Michigan State permitted 337.7 passing yards per game this season, worst in the nation, so Patti should have some opportunities.
Patti will have star wide receiver Jordan Addison, who won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver, with 17 touchdowns on the year. He caught at least five passes in each contest this season, and he has 33 receptions in the last three games. In the backfield, the Panthers have Israel Abanikanda and Rodney Hammond Jr, but the Spartan rushing defense only permitted 3.46 yards per attempt – and PItt did not run the football much this season.
Why should you put your money on the Spartans?
One key bit of news for the Spartans was the availability of top wide receiver Jalen Nailor, who had to sit out the last four games of the season with an injured hand. He and Jalen Reed drove opposing secondaries nuts, catching 14 of the team’s 24 touchdown passes between them, and they both averaged over 17 yards per reception. Quarterback Payton Thorne should have plenty of options against a Pitt secondary that permitted 257.4 yards per game through the air, 105th among FBS schools.
Even with Walker out of the bowl game, Michigan State has talent in the backfield, with sophomore Jordan Simmons likely to get the start. He has averaged 4.7 yards per carry, and he was the team’s leading rusher as a freshman. Sophomore Elijah Collins ran for 988 yards in 2019 and should also get a big load of the carries. However, the Pitt run defense was sixth among FBS programs, permitting 91.8 yards per game. Pitt has limited their last six opponents to fewer than three yards per rushing attempt, including Wake Forest during the ACC title game.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Michigan State has all of its playmakers in the passing game, now that Nailor has announced his decision to participate in the Peach Bowl. They should be able to get plenty of yards and points against Pitt. The Panther offense will be able to do some damage, but it’s hard with a backup quarterback, even with a couple of extra weeks to prepare. I predict a final score of Michigan State 30, Pitt 20.
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