If you’re thinking that sports betting on the college football bowl season is chaotic at best, you’re not alone. Coastal Carolina won the Hawai’i Bowl over San Jose State despite going in as 17-point underdogs. Boston College beat SMU in the Fenway Bowl by nine despite entering as 10-point dogs. Outside the College Football Playoff, bowl games don’t have any practical significance for anyone other than TV advertisers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that top players opt out, mediocre teams cover, or even win, as underdogs – and those who can find the imbalances profit. Tennessee enters their Citrus Bowl matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes as eight-point favorites despite the fact that the Vols won’t have starting quarterback Joe Milton or either of their top two tailbacks, who have opted out. Defensive starters Tyler Baron and Tamarion McDonald have entered the transfer portal. No Iowa players have opted out. Should you pick the Vols to cover? Read on to get our thoughts in this game between Iowa vs Tennessee.
2023 College Football Citrus Bowl Odds: Iowa vs Tennessee
When: Monday, January 1, 2024, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando
TV: ABC
Radio: SiriusXM
Live Stream: Hulu+
NCAAF Odds: Tennessee -6.5 / O/U 35.5 // Iowa +200 / Tennessee -250
Why should you bet on the #17 Iowa Hawkeyes?
Iowa has the fourth-best scoring defense in the nation, permitting just 13.3 points per contest. However, they had been game-planning for Milton instead of Nico Iamaleava, the freshman who will start at quarterback for Tennessee now. He was ranked second in the nation in the 2023 recruiting class after Texas’ Arch Manning. He has been guided by Milton, who is preparing for the NFL draft, approaching the bowl game. It would be helpful, of course, if Iamaleava had tailbacks Jaylen Wright (1,013 yards) or Jabari Small (475) to carry the ball, but he will have to settle for Dylan Sampson, the short-yardage back who scored seven times this year. Wide receivers Squirrel White (64 catches, 764 yards, 2 TD), McCallan Castles (21-265-4) and Ramel Keyton (32-591-6) are still there, so Iamaleava will have some quality options running routes.
Iowa did post a 10-3 season and won the Big Ten West before falling to Michigan in the conference championship, 26-0. This is also the Hawkeyes’ second Citrus Bowl in the last three years. Punter Tory Taylor (86 punts, 47.9 yards per punt) and defensive back Cooper DeJean (41 tackles, 15 assists, 2 interceptions) were both named unanimous All-Americans, and Taylor also won the Ray Guy Award, given to the nation’s best punter. However, if their offense can move the ball at all, their defense should be able to force Tennessee into third-and-long situations and short drives.
Bet on Iowa to Win Today
| 2024 Citrus Bowl Odds | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Volunteers | -6.5 | -250 | U 35.5 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | +6.5 | +200 | O 35.5 |
Why should you put your money on the #21 Tennessee Volunteers?
Iowa’s offense ranks 127th in the nation in scoring, putting up 16.6 points per game. They have scored 20 points in a game once in the last seven contests. Their offensive coordinator has been shown the gate despite being the head coach’s son (which may have made for some tense holidays in the Ferentz household).
While Iowa’s defense has been getting the headlines, Tennessee’s unit is pretty solid also. They allowed 22.0 points per game, which ranked fifth in the SEC. They rank fifth in the nation in tackles for loss (7.8 per game), and they only allow 113.8 rushing yards per game. Given the fact that the Hawkeyes treat the forward pass like a trick play, that sounds like a pretty solid matchup. Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill has lost five fumbles this season, the second-highest total among Power 5 quarterbacks.
Bet on Tennessee to Win Today
Iowa vs Tennessee Final Score and Prediction for the Citrus Bowl
Iowa did a fine job grinding out wins against Big Ten West foes, but it’s hard to argue that they would have won eight games in the Big Ten East. Backup quarterbacks aren’t as big of a dropoff in college football, especially at the top levels, where schools stash blue-chip prospects at that position. Remember when Tua Tagovailoa came on at halftime as a true freshman and led Alabama back against Georgia? College offenses are more about systems than players in many cases as well. I predict a final score of Tennessee 24, Iowa 9.
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